ArcSoft Corporation Limited (SHSE:688088) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 33% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 6.6% isn't as attractive.
Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in China's Software industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 5.3x, you may consider ArcSoft as a stock to avoid entirely with its 20.8x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How Has ArcSoft Performed Recently?
Recent times have been advantageous for ArcSoft as its revenues have been rising faster than most other companies. It seems the market expects this form will continue into the future, hence the elevated P/S ratio. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on ArcSoft will help you uncover what's on the horizon.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?
ArcSoft's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 26%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 1.9% drop in revenue in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 37% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 33% growth forecast for the broader industry.
With this in mind, it's not hard to understand why ArcSoft's P/S is high relative to its industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
What We Can Learn From ArcSoft's P/S?
Shares in ArcSoft have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of ArcSoft's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior revenue outlook is contributing to its high P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in revenues is quite remote, justifying the elevated P/S ratio. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ArcSoft you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of ArcSoft's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.