Xiamen Yanjan New Material Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300658) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 27% over that time.
After such a large jump in price, Xiamen Yanjan New Material's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 44.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 31x and even P/E's below 19x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Xiamen Yanjan New Material certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Xiamen Yanjan New Material would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 36% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 90% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 41% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Xiamen Yanjan New Material is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Xiamen Yanjan New Material's P/E
Xiamen Yanjan New Material's P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Xiamen Yanjan New Material currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Xiamen Yanjan New Material that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Xiamen Yanjan New Material. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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