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Revenues Not Telling The Story For Jinan High-tech Development Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600807) After Shares Rise 31%

株式上海市場600807の純利益は上昇しても、実態とは異なります。

Simply Wall St ·  03/18 01:36

Jinan High-tech Development Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600807) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 31% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 16% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Jinan High-tech Development is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 2.6x, considering almost half the companies in China's Real Estate industry have P/S ratios below 1.6x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600807 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 18th 2024

How Has Jinan High-tech Development Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Jinan High-tech Development over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Jinan High-tech Development will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Jinan High-tech Development's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 39% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 27% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Jinan High-tech Development is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Jinan High-tech Development's P/S?

Jinan High-tech Development shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Jinan High-tech Development currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Having said that, be aware Jinan High-tech Development is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Jinan High-tech Development, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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