Unsurprisingly, Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603868) stock price was strong on the back of its healthy earnings report. However, we think that shareholders may be missing some concerning details in the numbers.
Examining Cashflow Against Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to December 2023, Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance had an accrual ratio of -0.12. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥1.2b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of CN¥1.02b. Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Surprisingly, given Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥155m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
Our Take On Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance's Profit Performance
In conclusion, Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Based on these factors, it's hard to tell if Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance's profits are a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance you should be aware of.
Our examination of Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
