Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300771) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 64% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 20% over that time.
Since its price has surged higher, Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 7x, since almost half of all companies in the Electronic industry in China have P/S ratios under 4x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
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How Has Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech Performed Recently?
For instance, Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech will help you shine a light on its historical performance.How Is Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech's Revenue Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 67% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 64% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's alarming that Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What We Can Learn From Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech's P/S?
The strong share price surge has lead to Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech's P/S soaring as well. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.