The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that according to Canalys forecasts, thanks to the Windows update cycle and the rise of computers with AI features and ARM architecture, the global PC market is on the path of recovery. Shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 267 million units, an increase of 8% over 2023. 2024 will be the first year of the AI PC era. Whether it is Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, or Apple, they are concentrating on releasing their PC platform products around the AI concept at this moment. The development of AI PCs is driving up demand for switching, while also placing higher demands on PC hardware. Increased penetration of hardware acceleration modules in PCs is expected to increase PC unit prices, and the accelerated PC industry with superimposed switching cycles is expected to usher in a sharp rise in volume and price.

The year-on-year decline in global PC shipments narrowed to 0.1% in 2023Q4 and is expected to grow 8% for the full year of 2024

Global PC shipments all rebounded month-on-month in 23Q2-Q3. The year-on-year decline in global PC shipments narrowed quarterly in 2023, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.1% in 23Q4. According to IDC data, global PC shipments declined 9% month-on-month in 22Q4 and 15% month-on-month in 23Q1; global PC shipments rebounded 8% month-on-month in 23Q2, narrowing the year-on-year decline to 14%, and global PC shipments rebounded 11% month-on-month in 23Q3, further narrowing the year-on-year decline to 8%. By 23Q4, global PC shipments were 61.7 million units, down 0.1% year on year. The PC industry gradually came out of a downward cycle, and an inflection point appeared in the industry.

Industry giants actively lay out AI PCs to start the first year of increasing penetration

2024 will be the first year of the AI PC era. Whether it is using Core Ultra mobile chips to launch Intel to bring AI characteristics to 1 million PCs by 2025, or AMD, which is the first to launch a desktop processor with the AI engine Ryzen 8000 series APU; or Qualcomm, which is trying to break the game, and Apple, which uses Arm architecture to gain a foothold, will focus on releasing its PC platform products around the AI concept at this moment.

Canalys predicts that 2024H1 will see a wave of AI-enabled models. The AI PC market is expected to grow rapidly in 2025 and 2026, given that the latest Windows operating system launched at the end of 2024 will release features enhanced by AI and the widespread application of AI tools in commercial and productivity software. Canalys predicts that by 2027, global shipments of AI PCs are expected to exceed 170 million units, accounting for more than 60% of total PC shipments, and the CAGR of AI PC shipments will reach 63% in 23-27.

Related targets:

Upstream display panel companies: It is recommended to focus on Weishi Electronics (605218.SH) and Longteng Optoelectronics (688055.SH).

Upstream structural parts companies: We recommend Chunqiu Electronics (603890.SH), and it is recommended to focus on Shengli Precision (002426.SZ), Yingli (300956.SZ), and Xinyin Electronics (301329.SZ).

Other upstream component companies: It is recommended to focus on Longyang Electronics (301389.SZ), Everbright Tongchuang (301387.SZ), Wanxiang Technology (301180.SZ), and Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH).

Downstream terminal sales companies: It is recommended to pay attention to Lenovo Group (00992) and ODM factory Huaqin Technology (603296.SH).

Risk warning: Downstream recovery falls short of anticipated risk; AI PC user experience falls short of expected risk.