When Will Federal Reserve Cut Rates? Crypto Bettors See 52% Chance By This Date
When Will Federal Reserve Cut Rates? Crypto Bettors See 52% Chance By This Date
Investors and analysts are closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for the first of several rate cuts that were said to be coming in 2024.
投资者和分析师正在密切关注联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周二和周三的会议，据说可能在2024年进行多次降息，这是首次降息。
What Happened: The Federal Reserve hinted at three rate cuts for 2024, which would follow two years that saw the federal funds rate raised by more than 10 times.
发生了什么：美联储暗示将在2024年进行三次降息，接下来的两年中，联邦基金利率将提高10倍以上。
Higher than expected inflation in February may lead to a delay in cutting rates until later in 2024.
2月份的通货膨胀率高于预期，可能导致降息推迟到2024年晚些时候。
Most economists are now predicting that the Federal Reserve will keep the rates unchanged at the March meeting and most likely at the May meeting.
大多数经济学家现在预测，美联储将在3月份的会议上以及很可能在5月的会议上保持利率不变。
The key question mark is on the June FOMC meeting where financial experts are now mixed on if this will mark the first Fed rate cut in years.
关键问号在于6月的联邦公开市场委员会会议，金融专家现在对这是否标志着美联储多年来首次降息的看法喜忧参半。
Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips still sees rate cuts coming in 2024, but cuts the estimate from four down to three.
高盛经济学家亚历克·菲利普斯仍预计将在2024年降息，但将预期从四次下调至三次。
"We now expect three cuts in 2024 in June, September and December versus four previously, mainly because of the slightly higher inflation path," Phillips said.
菲利普斯说：“我们现在预计2024年将在6月、9月和12月进行三次降息，而之前为四次，这主要是由于通货膨胀路径略有上升。”
The economist cites recent inflation trends and uncertainty as a reason the rate cuts could come later than originally anticipated.
这位经济学家指出，最近的通货膨胀趋势和不确定性是降息可能晚于最初预期的原因。
Related Link: Fed Officials Confident Inflation Is Easing, But Want More Evidence Before Cutting Rates
相关链接：美联储官员相信通货膨胀正在缓解，但在降息之前需要更多证据
Crypto Bettors Make Their Prediction: Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.
加密博彩玩家做出预测：加密预测市场Polymarket提供政治、中东、体育、加密货币、流行文化、商业和科学等类别的投注。
A prediction market for when the first-rate cut from the Federal Reserve will take place has attracted over $3.1 million in wagers.
对美联储何时进行一流降息的预测市场吸引了超过310万美元的赌注。
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon (CRYPTO: MATTIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or from crypto accounts on Coinbase, Robinhood or PayPal, according to the company's guides.
根据该公司的指南，在Polymarket上，用户使用USDC（加密货币：USDC）向Polygon（加密货币：USDC）存款，并且可以在以太坊（加密货币：ETH）或从Coinbase、Robinhood或PayPal的加密账户存款。
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option(s) that ends up being the winner.
每个投注市场以1美元兑现最终成为赢家的期权。
The current market for "Fed Rate Cut By...?" has the following options with the percent odds of happening listed.
“美联储降息...？” 的当前市场有以下选项，其中列出了发生概率的百分比。
- March 20: 1%
- May 1: 10%
- June 12: 52%
- July 31: 78%
- Sept. 18: 89%
- Nov. 7: 90%
- Dec. 18: 93%
- 3 月 20 日：1%
- 5 月 1 日：10%
- 6 月 12 日：52%
- 7 月 31 日：78%
- 9 月 18 日：89%
- 11 月 7 日：90%
- 12 月 18 日：93%
The highest wagered market is surprisingly March 20 with $1.8 million bet on either yes or no. With odds of around 1%, the market is listed at around one cent, meaning if the Fed surprises and does cut rates, bettors backing yes would see a massive win paying out $1.
出人意料的是，投注额最高的市场是3月20日，有180万美元下注是或否。该市场的赔率约为1％，上市价格约为1美分，这意味着如果美联储出人意料并确实降息，支持 “是” 的博彩玩家将看到一个巨大的胜利，支付1美元。
The May date has around $898,000 wagered and June has $307,000, making the first three dates the three leading markets.
5月份的投注额约为89.8万美元，6月份的下注额为30.7万美元，这使得前三个日期成为三个主要市场。
Over 50% of bettors see a rate cut happening by June 12. For this market, all the wagers will cash out that happen after the date of the first-rate cut.
超过50％的博彩玩家认为降息将在6月12日之前发生。对于这个市场，所有在一流降息之日之后发生的赌注都将兑现。
Based on comments from economists and the crypto betting market, June is currently the heavy favorite to see the first-rate cut. Comments from the Federal Reserve this week could change that outlook.
根据经济学家和加密博彩市场的评论，6月份目前是一流降息的重中之重。美联储本周的评论可能会改变这种前景。
Image: Flickr
图片：Flickr