Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 28% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.
Since its price has dipped substantially, Exagen may be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x, since almost half of all companies in the Biotechs industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 15.1x and even P/S higher than 70x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
NasdaqGM:XGN Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 20th 2024
What Does Exagen's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
Recent times haven't been great for Exagen as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the uninspiring revenue performance to persist, which has repressed the growth of the P/S ratio. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Exagen will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Exagen's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 15% last year. As a result, it also grew revenue by 25% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 12% each year as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 145% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that Exagen's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
Having almost fallen off a cliff, Exagen's share price has pulled its P/S way down as well. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Exagen maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider industry, as expected. Shareholders' pessimism on the revenue prospects for the company seems to be the main contributor to the depressed P/S. The company will need a change of fortune to justify the P/S rising higher in the future.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Exagen that you should be aware of.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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