As you might know, Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) just kicked off its latest yearly results with some very strong numbers. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$53m beating forecasts by 4.4%. Statutory losses of US$1.34 per share were 4.4% smaller than the analysts expected, likely helped along by the higher revenues. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Exagen are now predicting revenues of US$54.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.36. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$54.1m and losses of US$1.36 per share in 2024.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$5.50, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Exagen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$7.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Exagen shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Exagen's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.5% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Exagen is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Exagen going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Exagen you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
