People.cn CO., LTD (SHSE:603000) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 68% in the last year.
Since its price has surged higher, given around half the companies in China's Media industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.8x, you may consider People.cn as a stock to avoid entirely with its 17x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
How Has People.cn Performed Recently?
It looks like revenue growth has deserted People.cn recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many are expecting an improvement to the uninspiring revenue performance over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on People.cn's earnings, revenue and cash flow.How Is People.cn's Revenue Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as People.cn's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 3.4% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's alarming that People.cn's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
Shares in People.cn have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of People.cn revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for People.cn you should know about.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.