It's been a pretty great week for Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited (HKG:9979) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to HK$6.19 in the week since its latest full-year results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CN¥3.3b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.49. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Greentown Management Holdings from ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.13b in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 27% to CN¥0.62. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥4.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.62 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$8.48, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Greentown Management Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$9.96 and the most bearish at HK$7.26 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Greentown Management Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 25% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 15% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Greentown Management Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$8.48, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Greentown Management Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Greentown Management Holdings you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
