The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. BioNTech missed earnings this time around, with €3.8b revenue coming in 8.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €3.83 also fell short of expectations by 14%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering BioNTech provided consensus estimates of €2.91b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a substantial 24% decline over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of €1.63 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.20 in 2024. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on BioNTech, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

The average price target fell 6.0% to US$118, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for BioNTech's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on BioNTech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$187 and the most bearish at US$89.56 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BioNTech's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 24% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 45% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that BioNTech's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for BioNTech dropped from profits to a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple BioNTech analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for BioNTech (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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