What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Having said that, from a first glance at Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Waste Connections, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.083 = US$1.3b ÷ (US$18b - US$1.7b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

Thus, Waste Connections has an ROCE of 8.3%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 10% average generated by the Commercial Services industry.

In the above chart we have measured Waste Connections' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Waste Connections for free.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

There are better returns on capital out there than what we're seeing at Waste Connections. The company has consistently earned 8.3% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 38% in that time. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

Our Take On Waste Connections' ROCE

Long story short, while Waste Connections has been reinvesting its capital, the returns that it's generating haven't increased. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 102% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing Waste Connections, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should be aware of.

While Waste Connections may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.