The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Unfortunately the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited (SHSE:600004) share price slid 35% over twelve months. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 13%. At least the damage isn't so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 26% in that time. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 5.1%. However, this move may have been influenced by the broader market, which fell 2.2% in that time.
Since Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport has shed CN¥1.3b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last twelve months, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport increased its revenue by 8.5%. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. Given this lacklustre revenue growth, the share price drop of 35% seems pretty appropriate. In a hot market it's easy to forget growth is the life-blood of a loss making company. But if you buy a loss making company then you could become a loss making investor.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport shareholders are down 35% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 13%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Shareholders might want to examine this detailed historical graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
