Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300142) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of CN¥4.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CN¥0.26, missing estimates by 2.9%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Walvax Biotechnology's dual analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.51b in 2024. This would reflect a decent 9.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 106% to CN¥0.54. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥5.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.67 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a real cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥21.00, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Walvax Biotechnology's valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Walvax Biotechnology's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Walvax Biotechnology's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 33% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 24% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Walvax Biotechnology is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Walvax Biotechnology. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Walvax Biotechnology .

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