An Intrinsic Calculation For Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603611) Suggests It's 36% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603611) Suggests It's 36% Undervalued
Key Insights
關鍵見解
- Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥30.94 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd's CN¥19.71 share price signals that it might be 36% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 23% higher than Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd's analyst price target of CN¥25.20
- 根據兩階段股權自由現金流計算,Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd的估計公允價值爲30.94元人民幣
- Noblelift智能設備有限公司19.71元人民幣的股價表明其估值可能被低估了36%
- 我們的公允價值估計比Noblelift智能設備有限公司分析師設定的25.20元人民幣的目標股價高出23%
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603611) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
今天,我們將簡單介紹一種用於估算Noblelift智能設備有限公司吸引力的估值方法。, Ltd.(上海證券交易所股票代碼:603611)將預期的未來現金流作爲投資機會,並將其折現爲今天的價值。我們的分析將採用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。像這樣的模型可能看起來超出外行人的理解,但它們很容易理解。
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
我們普遍認爲,公司的價值是其未來將產生的所有現金的現值。但是,差價合約只是衆多估值指標中的一個,而且並非沒有缺陷。對於那些熱衷於股票分析的人來說,你可能會對這裏的Simply Wall St分析模型感興趣。
What's The Estimated Valuation?
估計估值是多少?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,這僅意味着公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長期。通常,第一階段是較高的增長階段,第二階段是較低的增長階段。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。鑑於我們沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們從公司上次公佈的價值中推斷了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
差價合約就是關於未來一美元的價值低於今天一美元的概念,因此,這些未來現金流的總和將折現爲今天的價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 估計
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥445.4m | CN¥479.5m | CN¥509.4m | CN¥536.2m | CN¥560.6m | CN¥583.4m | CN¥605.2m | CN¥626.3m | CN¥647.2m | CN¥668.0m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 9.68% | Est @ 7.65% | Est @ 6.24% | Est @ 5.25% | Est @ 4.56% | Est @ 4.07% | Est @ 3.73% | Est @ 3.49% | Est @ 3.33% | Est @ 3.21% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3% | CN¥408 | CN¥402 | CN¥391 | CN¥376 | CN¥360 | CN¥343 | CN¥326 | CN¥308 | CN¥292 | CN¥276 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿FCF(人民幣,百萬) | 4.454 億元人民幣 | 479.5 億人民幣 | 5.094 億元人民幣 | 536.2 億元人民幣 | 560.6 萬人民幣 | 5.834億元人民幣 | 605.2 萬元人民幣 | 6.263 億元人民幣 | 647.2 萬人民幣 | 668.0 萬元人民幣 |
增長率估算來源 | 美國東部標準時間 @ 9.68% | Est @ 7.65% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 6.24% | 東部時間 @ 5.25% | Est @ 4.56% | Est @ 4.07% | Est @ 3.73% | Est @ 3.49% | Est @ 3.33% | Est @ 3.21% |
現值(人民幣,百萬)折扣 @ 9.3% | CN¥408 | CN¥402 | CN¥391 | CN¥376 | CN¥360 | CN¥343 | CN¥326 | 人民幣308 元 | 292 元人民幣 | CN¥276 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.5b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10年期現金流(PVCF)的現值 = 35億元人民幣
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.3%.
我們現在需要計算終值,該值涵蓋了這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終值,其未來年增長率等於10年期國債收益率2.9%的5年平均水平。我們將終端現金流折現爲今天的價值,權益成本爲9.3%。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥668m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.3%– 2.9%) = CN¥11b
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 6.68億元人民幣× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.3% — 2.9%) = 110億元人民幣
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥11b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)10= CN¥4.5b
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= CN¥11b÷ (1 + 9.3%)10= 4.5億元人民幣
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥8.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥19.7, the company appears quite good value at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
總價值是未來十年的現金流之和加上折後的最終價值,由此得出總權益價值,在本例中爲80億元人民幣。爲了得出每股內在價值,我們將其除以已發行股票總數。相對於目前的19.7元人民幣的股價,該公司看起來物有所值,與目前的股價相比折扣了36%。但請記住,這只是一個近似的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣,垃圾進出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240404/0-1c7fa1c437ef52f096789bfc58f2f1e9-0-3596704716d6c9a271a26fc0780cd27a.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假設
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.122. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我們要指出的是,貼現現金流的最重要投入是貼現率,當然還有實際的現金流。投資的一部分是自己對公司未來業績的評估,因此請自己嘗試計算並檢查自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLTD視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了9.3%,這是基於1.122的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Next Steps:
後續步驟:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd, we've compiled three relevant aspects you should consider:
就建立投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究公司時唯一考慮的指標。DCF模型並不是投資估值的萬能藥。相反,它應該被視爲 “需要哪些假設才能低估/高估這隻股票的價值?” 的指南例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化會對估值產生重大影響。爲什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於Noblelift智能設備有限公司,我們整理了您應該考慮的三個相關方面:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Noblelift Intelligent EquipmentLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 603611's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 風險:例如,我們發現了Noblelift Intellift Intelligent EquipmentLTD的1個警告信號,在投資這裏之前,你應該注意這個信號。
- 未來收益:與同行和整個市場相比,603611的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
- 其他高質量的替代品:你喜歡一個優秀的全能選手嗎?瀏覽我們的高品質股票互動清單,了解您可能還會錯過什麼!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都會更新每隻中國股票的差價合約計算結果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,請在此處搜索。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。