Larry Summers Says There's Still a 'Real Possibility' of a Fed Move Higher: 'Would Be an Inappropriate Act to Cut Rates' at June Meeting
Larry Summers Says There's Still a 'Real Possibility' of a Fed Move Higher: 'Would Be an Inappropriate Act to Cut Rates' at June Meeting
The stock market largely took a stronger-than-expected March job report in stride, but an economist warned on Friday that the data could dampen hopes of rate cuts.
3月份的就业报告基本上强于预期，但一位经济学家周五警告说，该数据可能会抑制降息的希望。
Neutral Rates: The U.S. payrolls gain in March suggests the economy is re-accelerating, said former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers in a Bloomberg interview last week. Considering other factors such as the "epic" loosening in financial conditions, "it seems to me the evidence is overwhelming that the neutral rate is far higher than the Fed supposes," he said.
中性利率：前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯上周在彭博社采访中表示，美国3月份的就业人数增长表明经济正在重新加速。他说，考虑到其他因素，例如金融状况 “史诗般的” 放松，“在我看来，有大量证据表明，中性利率远高于美联储的预期。”
A neutral monetary policy rate is one which is neither stimulatory nor restrictive to growth.
中性货币政策利率既不刺激也不限制增长。
The median estimate for the neutral policy rate issued by Fed officials following the March meeting was 2.6%, while Summers estimated it be at 4% or higher. The Fed funds rate is currently at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. Summers, a professor at Harvard University, suggested that the current policy rate has only a slight element of restriction.
美联储官员在3月会议后发布的中性政策利率的中位数估计为2.6％，而萨默斯估计为4％或更高。联邦基金利率目前处于22年来的最高水平，为5.25％-5.50％。哈佛大学教授萨默斯认为，目前的政策利率只有一点限制因素。
The economist also took exception to not having a neutral rate target.
这位经济学家还对没有设定中性利率目标表示异议。
Saying 'we don't need to know what the neutral rate is' is like saying you should drive your car on feel, without looking at the speedometer ... It is just a mistake," he said.
说 “我们不需要知道中性速率是多少” 就像说你应该在不看车速表的情况下凭感觉开车...这只是一个错误，” 他说。
The Bloomberg report noted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Stanford University event recently that the question of what the neutral rate will be going forward doesn't matter for policy today.
彭博社的报道指出，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近在斯坦福大学的一次活动中表示，未来中性利率的问题对今天的政策并不重要。
Summers, however, said, "There's no way to judge what policy is without knowing what would be a neutral policy."
但是，萨默斯说：“如果不知道什么是中立的政策，就无法判断政策是什么。”
Rate Outlook: Delving into the monetary policy trajectory, Summers said, "I don't want to make a prescription for monetary policy in June, but on current facts and current trends, I think it would be an inappropriate act to cut rates" at that meeting.
利率展望：萨默斯在深入研究货币政策轨迹时说：“我不想在6月开出货币政策的处方，但根据目前的事实和当前的趋势，我认为在那次会议上降息是不恰当的行为”。
My best guess is that the right thing to do is going to be to stick where we are for considerably longer than the Fed dot-plot supposes," the economist said, adding that while it's "certainly more likely than not that the next move will be down and should be down" in rates, there's still "a real possibility that it should be up."
我最好的猜测是，正确的做法是保持现状的时间比美联储的点阵图所设想的时间长得多。” 他补充说，尽管下一步利率下调的可能性肯定更大，而且应该降低”，但是 “确实有可能提高利率”。
The probability of a rate cut, going by the CME FedWatch tool, is 4.8% at the May meeting, 53.2% at the June meeting, 72.5% at the July meeting.
根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察工具，降息的可能性在5月份的会议上为4.8％，在6月的会议上为53.2％，在7月的会议上为72.5％。
The financial markets have priced in about three cuts this year, with some bullish analysts even flagging more than three, premising their expectation on inflation resuming its downtrend.
金融市场对今年约三次降息进行了定价，一些看涨的分析师甚至宣布了三次以上的降幅，前提是他们预计通货膨胀将恢复下降趋势。
The $iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP.US)$, an ETF tracking the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, ended Friday's session unchanged at $106.68, according to Benzinga Pro data.
这个 $通胀债券指数ETF-iShares (TIP.US)$Benzinga Pro的数据显示，追踪由受通胀保护的美国国债组成的指数的投资业绩的ETF，周五收盘维持在106.68美元。