Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that looking forward to 2024, leading Internet e-commerce platforms will focus on the refined operation and development of core businesses, and growth has become an important strategic demand at present.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that looking forward to 2024, leading Internet e-commerce platforms will focus on the refined operation and development of core businesses, and growth has become an important strategic demand at present. Focusing on price power and user experience, various platforms have comprehensively upgraded the supply chain system and service system to provide consumers with better products and services on the basis of improving supply chain efficiency and quality and enhancing price competitiveness, and the overall level of competition and standards in the e-commerce industry has reached a new level. At the same time, e-commerce platforms are further building a cross-border system, upgrading iterative business models, empowering more merchants and products to go overseas, and speeding up the globalization process to share local risks.
On the management side, it is expected that through technological innovation and ecological construction, the efficiency of cost investment will be improved, and a balance between growth and profit will be achieved. Currently, consumption is showing positive signs of improvement, driving the growth potential of the e-commerce industry to increase. All platforms insist on placing equal emphasis on incremental development and stock operations. Early investment is expected to be further transformed into real performance growth, driving the company's value to accelerate recovery.
Recommended targets: Meituan (03690), Alibaba (09988), JD (09618), Pinduoduo (PDD.US).
Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:
E-commerce has achieved remarkable results, further promoting the global layout
Year 23 was the first year of a new round of overseas Chinese supply chains and brands. China's cross-border e-commerce exports increased dramatically, total imports and exports increased 15.6%, and exports surged 19.6%. Overseas e-commerce giants such as TEMU, SHEIN, AliExpress, and TikTok have performed well in the global market. Relying on efficient supply chain integration, accurate pricing strategies, and excellent marketing, they have successfully leveraged the global consumer market and achieved a significant increase in users and market share. According to data from Shanghai Pudong Airport Customs, export declarations from TEMU, SheIN, and TikTok have increased tenfold, quickly taking the leading position in cross-border e-commerce exports.
According to Data.ai, the Chinese e-commerce “Four Little Dragons” occupy the top four places in the global shopping app download growth ranking. At the same time, due to the special political climate of the 2024 US election year, there may be uncertainty about related policies, which require close attention from Chinese e-commerce companies. Shen Wan Hongyuan believes that going overseas in '24 still has broad room for growth. At the same time, he is concerned about local policy risks, deepens the global layout, and explores market potential in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Northeast Asia.
Domestic demand stabilized, e-commerce refined operation competition entered a new stage, and AI promoted full-link upgrading
Shen Wan Hongyuan pointed out that the steady recovery of the consumer market continues to consolidate and strengthen its positive trend, promoting consumer policies to promote the flow of economic factors, and is optimistic about the recovery of Chinese consumption. E-commerce platforms all focus on price power strategies, and consumer demand for cost performance based on quality is gradually becoming mainstream. Following Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and JD, Douyin e-commerce has also set “price power” as its top priority in 2024, striving to provide more competitive prices on the premise of ensuring product quality.
In order to adapt to market trends, e-commerce platforms optimize supply chain systems and service systems to strengthen price competitiveness to meet consumers' multiple needs for cost performance and experience under rational consumption trends. At the same time, with the continuous innovation and upgrading of AI technology, the e-commerce industry has strongly promoted the overall upgrading of operational efficiency, supply chain management, and consumer experience. The development of AIGC technology has provided stable technical support and innovation impetus for the e-commerce industry, and has become an important link in the AI e-commerce industry chain. From operation and supply chain to consumer terminals, AI is profoundly changing the e-commerce industry pattern.
The platform focuses on core business investment, overseas travel has become an important engine, and growth has generally accelerated
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the scale of the e-commerce industry in 23Q4 was 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3%, which is accelerating month-on-month. The revenue growth performance of each platform is consistent with e-commerce industry trends. According to the company announcement, in 23Q4, Ali/ JD/ Pinduoduo/Meituan achieved revenue of 2603/3061/889/73.7 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 5%/4%/123%/23% over the previous year.
Pinduoduo further led the industry in revenue, driven by a rational consumer mentality and rapid advances in overseas business. The 23q4 growth rate increased by +77/29pct year over year. Driven by the scale of TEMU, Pinduoduo achieved transaction service revenue of 40.2 billion yuan in 23Q4, an increase of 357% over the previous year, gradually becoming Pinduoduo's second growth curve. In addition, Ali International Retail reached +60%/73%/56% year-on-year in 23Q2-Q4, reaching 171/190/23.3 billion yuan, a growth rate significantly higher than the Group's other businesses.
Taken together, various platforms have optimized the supply chain structure, enriched the merchant ecosystem, improved internal operating efficiency, achieved incremental profit release, and maintained stable or even higher profit levels while promoting price power strategies. The net profit margin of Alibaba/Jingdong/Pinduoduo/Meituan in 23Q4 was 18.5%/2.7%/28.7%/5.9%, -1.6/+0.1/-1.7/+4.6pct year-on-year.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, market competition intensifies, new business development falls short of expectations, overseas business development falls short of expectations.