As you might know, Yunnan Tin Company Limited (SZSE:000960) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with CN¥42b revenues missing by 12%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.86 falling short of forecasts by some -18%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Yunnan Tin is for revenues of CN¥38.3b in 2024. This implies a considerable 9.6% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 54% to CN¥1.31. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥50.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.35 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that sentiment has declined measurably after results came out, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a small dip in EPS estimates to boot.

The average price target climbed 11% to CN¥19.96despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Yunnan Tin, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥21.24 and the most bearish at CN¥17.48 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Yunnan Tin's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Tin. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yunnan Tin going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Yunnan Tin that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.