Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600993)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600993)
Key Insights
关键见解
- The projected fair value for Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group is CN¥25.19 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group's CN¥25.77 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -12,571%
- 根据两阶段股权自由现金流,马应龙药业集团的预计公允价值为25.19元人民币
- 马应龙制药集团25.77元人民币的股价表明其交易价格与其公允价值估计相似
- 根据行业平均水平-12,571%,美英龙制药集团的同行似乎以更高的公允价值溢价进行交易
Does the April share price for Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600993) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
马应龙药业集团有限公司(SHSE: 600993)4月份的股价是否反映了其真正价值?今天,我们将通过采用预期的未来现金流并将其折现为现值来估算股票的内在价值。这将使用折扣现金流 (DCF) 模型来完成。在你认为自己无法理解之前,请继续阅读!实际上,它没有你想象的那么复杂。
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我们要指出,DCF并不适合所有情况。对于那些热衷于股票分析的人来说,你可能会对这里的Simply Wall St分析模型感兴趣。
The Calculation
计算结果
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们将使用两阶段的DCF模型,顾名思义,该模型考虑了两个增长阶段。第一阶段通常是较高的增长期,在第二个 “稳步增长” 时期逐渐趋于平稳,最终值是第二个 “稳定增长” 时期。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。鉴于我们没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们从公司上次公布的价值中推断了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流不断增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早期增长的放缓幅度往往比后来的几年更大。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
通常,我们假设今天的一美元比未来一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行折价才能得出现值估计:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10 年自由现金流 (FCF) 预测
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥494.4m | CN¥507.0m | CN¥520.5m | CN¥534.8m | CN¥549.8m | CN¥565.5m | CN¥581.7m | CN¥598.6m | CN¥616.0m | CN¥633.9m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 2.38% | Est @ 2.55% | Est @ 2.67% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.81% | Est @ 2.85% | Est @ 2.87% | Est @ 2.89% | Est @ 2.91% | Est @ 2.92% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% | CN¥460 | CN¥439 | CN¥420 | CN¥401 | CN¥384 | CN¥368 | CN¥352 | CN¥337 | CN¥323 | CN¥309 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
杠杆FCF(人民币,百万) | CN¥494.4m | 507.0 万元人民币 | 520.5 亿人民币 | 5.348 亿元人民币 | 5.49 亿元人民币 | 565.5 万元人民币 | 5.817亿元人民币 | 5.986 亿元人民币 | 6.16亿元人民币 | 6.339 亿元人民币 |
增长率估算来源 | Est @ 2.38% | Est @ 2.55% | Est @ 2.67% | Est @ 2.75% | Est @ 2.81% | 东部时间 @ 2.85% | Est @ 2.87% | Est @ 2.89% | Est @ 2.91% | Est @ 2.92% |
现值(人民币,百万)折扣价 @ 7.4% | 460 元人民币 | CN¥439 | CN¥420 | CN¥401 | CN¥384 | CN¥368 | CN¥352 | CN¥337 | CN¥323 | CN¥309 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.8b
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)
10年期现金流(PVCF)的现值 = 38亿元人民币
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.4%.
我们现在需要计算终值,该值涵盖了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用的增长率非常保守,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期国债收益率的5年平均值(2.9%)来估计未来的增长。与10年 “增长” 期一样,我们使用7.4%的股本成本将未来的现金流折现为今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥634m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.9%) = CN¥14b
终端价值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 6.34亿元人民币× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4% — 2.9%) = 140亿元人民币
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥14b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= CN¥7.1b
终端价值的现值 (PVTV) = 电视/ (1 + r)10= CN¥14b÷ (1 + 7.4%)10= 7.1亿元人民币
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥11b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥25.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
总价值是未来十年的现金流总额加上折后的终端价值,由此得出总权益价值,在本例中为110亿元人民币。在最后一步中,我们将股票价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于目前的25.8元人民币的股价,该公司在撰写本文时表现接近公允价值。但请记住,这只是一个近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样,垃圾进出。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240416/0-78fc674770595815da13dd08cb6a4987-0-dcf3e09cf43f49f39f91123259c6ab65.png/big)
Important Assumptions
重要假设
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我们要指出的是,贴现现金流的最重要投入是贴现率,当然还有实际的现金流。投资的一部分是自己对公司未来业绩的评估,因此请自己尝试计算并检查自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑公司未来的资本需求,因此它没有全面反映公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将马应龙制药集团视为潜在股东,因此使用股本成本作为贴现率,而不是构成债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了7.4%,这是基于0.800的杠杆测试版。Beta是衡量股票与整个市场相比波动性的指标。我们的测试版来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值,设定在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定的业务的合理范围。
Moving On:
继续前进:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group, we've put together three important aspects you should look at:
尽管公司的估值很重要,但它不应该是你在研究公司时唯一考虑的指标。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。最好你运用不同的案例和假设,看看它们将如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,则产出可能会大不相同。对于马应龙药业集团而言,我们汇总了您应该考虑的三个重要方面:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group .
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 风险:为此,你应该注意我们在马应龙制药集团发现的1个警告信号。
- 其他稳健的业务:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去表现是强大业务的基础。为什么不浏览我们具有坚实业务基础的股票互动清单,看看是否还有其他你可能没有考虑过的公司!
- 其他环保公司:担心环境并认为消费者会越来越多地购买环保产品?浏览我们正在考虑更绿色未来的公司的互动名单,发现一些你可能没有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St每天都会更新每只中国股票的差价合约计算结果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,请在此处搜索。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。