Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
As you might know, Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600309) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥46b revenue coming in 9.2% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.32 missed the mark badly, arriving some 28% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
你可能知道,万华化学集团有限公司(SHSE: 600309)上周发布了最新一季度,但对股东来说,情况并不那么好。结果显示盈利明显下滑,460亿元人民币的收入比分析师的预期低9.2%。1.32元人民币的法定每股收益(EPS)严重未达到目标,比预期低约28%。分析师通常会在每份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。我们认为,读者会发现分析师对明年最新(法定)财报后的预测很有趣。
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Wanhua Chemical Group from 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥200.3b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to CN¥6.28. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥199.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥6.50 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
考虑到最新业绩,21位分析师对万华化学集团的最新共识是,2024年的收入为2003亿元人民币。如果得到满足,这意味着其收入在过去12个月中将显著增长12%。预计每股法定收益将增长17%,至6.28元人民币。在本财报发布之前,分析师一直预测2024年的收入为1994亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为6.50元人民币。因此,在最近的业绩公布之后,整体情绪似乎略有下降——收入估计没有重大变化,但分析师确实对每股收益的预测进行了小幅下调。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥108, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Wanhua Chemical Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥125 and the most bearish at CN¥95.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Wanhua Chemical Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
得知共识目标股价基本保持不变,为108元人民币,这可能会令人惊讶,分析师明确表示,预期的收益下降预计不会对估值产生太大影响。研究分析师的估计范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异也可能很有启发性。对万华化学集团的看法有所不同,最看涨的分析师将其估值为125元人民币,最看跌的为每股95.00元人民币。即便如此,在估计分组相对接近的情况下,分析师似乎对自己的估值相当有信心,这表明万华化学集团是一家易于预测的企业,或者分析师都使用了类似的假设。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Wanhua Chemical Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 16% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Wanhua Chemical Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
从现在的大局来看,我们可以理解这些预测的方法之一是看看它们如何与过去的业绩和行业增长预期相比较。我们要强调的是,万华化学集团的收入增长预计将放缓,预计到2024年底的年化增长率为16%,远低于过去五年24%的历史年增长率。将其与业内其他有分析师报道的公司并列,预计这些公司的收入(总计)每年将增长16%。因此,很明显,尽管万华化学集团的收入增长预计将放缓,但预计其增长将与行业大致持平。
The Bottom Line
底线
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
要了解的最重要的一点是,分析师下调了每股收益的预期,这表明公布这些业绩后,市场情绪明显下降。他们还重申了收入预期,预计该公司的增长速度将与整个行业大致相同。共识目标股价没有实际变化,这表明该业务的内在价值与最新估计相比没有发生任何重大变化。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Wanhua Chemical Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Wanhua Chemical Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点,我们不会很快就万华化学集团得出结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润重要得多。万华化学集团的多位分析师估计,到2026年,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Wanhua Chemical Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.
但是,在你变得太热情之前,我们已经发现了万华化学集团的 3 个警告信号(1 个可能很严重!)你应该注意的。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。