We Believe That National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's (SHSE:688126) Weak Earnings Are A Good Indicator Of Underlying Profitability
We Believe That National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's (SHSE:688126) Weak Earnings Are A Good Indicator Of Underlying Profitability
National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:688126) lackluster earnings announcement last week disappointed investors. We looked deeper and believe that there is even more to be worried about, beyond the soft profit numbers.
国家硅工业集团有限公司, Ltd. 's(上海证券交易所代码:688126)上周公布的乏善可陈的财报令投资者失望。我们进行了更深入的研究,并认为除了疲软的利润数字外,还有更多需要担心的地方。
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Zooming In On National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's Earnings
放大国家硅业集团有限公司的收益
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
正如金融迷已经知道的那样,现金流的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配程度的关键指标。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均运营资产。该比率向我们显示了公司的利润超过其FCF的程度。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,负应计比率对公司来说是正数,而正应计比率是负数。虽然正应计比率表明非现金利润达到一定水平不是问题,但高应计比率可以说是一件坏事,因为它表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司将来的利润往往会降低”。
Over the twelve months to December 2023, National Silicon Industry GroupLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 0.29. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥186.5m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥4.4b in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥4.4b, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
在截至2023年12月的十二个月中,国家硅工业集团有限公司的应计比率为0.29。因此,我们知道它的自由现金流大大低于其法定利润,这引发了人们对该利润数字到底有多有用的质疑。尽管该公司公布了1.865亿元的利润,但从自由现金流来看,它实际上在去年消耗了44亿元人民币。在去年自由现金流为负的背景下,我们想象一些股东可能会怀疑其今年44亿元人民币的现金消耗是否表明存在高风险。但是,这还不是要考虑的全部。我们可以看到,不寻常的项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
不寻常物品对利润的影响
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥337m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. National Silicon Industry GroupLtd had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
考虑到应计比率,在过去十二个月中,价值3.37亿元人民币的不寻常项目提振了国家硅工业集团有限公司的利润也就不足为奇了。我们不能否认更高的利润通常会让我们感到乐观,但如果利润是可持续的,我们更愿意这样做。我们统计了全球大多数上市公司的数字,不寻常的物品在自然界中很常见。这正如你所预料的那样,因为这些增强被描述为 “不寻常”。截至2023年12月,国家硅业集团有限公司从不寻常的项目中获得了相当大的利润。因此,我们可以推测,这些不寻常的物品使其法定利润明显高于原来的水平。
Our Take On National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's Profit Performance
我们对国家硅工业集团有限公司盈利表现的看法
Summing up, National Silicon Industry GroupLtd received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for National Silicon Industry GroupLtd (1 is a bit concerning!) and we strongly recommend you look at these bad boys before investing.
总而言之,国家硅业集团有限公司从不寻常的项目中获得了不错的利润提振,但其纸面利润无法与自由现金流相提并论。出于上述原因,我们认为,敷衍地看一眼国家硅业集团有限公司的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际水平要好。请记住,在分析股票时,值得注意所涉及的风险。我们的分析显示,国家硅业集团有限公司有两个警告信号(其中一个有点令人担忧!)我们强烈建议你在投资之前先看看这些坏孩子。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
在这篇文章中,我们研究了许多可能损害利润数字效用的因素,我们采取了谨慎的态度。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。因此,你可能希望看到这份免费收藏的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。