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Zbit Semiconductor, Inc.'s (SHSE:688416) 26% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 20 20:34

Zbit Semiconductor, Inc. (SHSE:688416) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 47% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Zbit Semiconductor may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 9.5x, since almost half of all companies in the Semiconductor industry in China have P/S ratios under 5.8x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:688416 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry April 21st 2024

How Zbit Semiconductor Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Zbit Semiconductor over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Zbit Semiconductor's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Zbit Semiconductor would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 29%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 21% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 34% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Zbit Semiconductor is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What Does Zbit Semiconductor's P/S Mean For Investors?

Zbit Semiconductor's shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that Zbit Semiconductor currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Zbit Semiconductor that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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