Earnings Beat: Autobio Diagnostics Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Earnings Beat: Autobio Diagnostics Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
The first-quarter results for Autobio Diagnostics Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603658) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The results were mixed; although revenues of CN¥1.1b fell 12% short of analyst estimates, statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.56 beat expectations by 17%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
奥特生物诊断有限公司(SHSE: 603658)的第一季度业绩已于上周公布,现在是重新审视其业绩的好时机。结果好坏参半;尽管11亿元人民币的收入比分析师的预期下降了12%,但0.56元人民币的法定每股收益(EPS)比预期高出17%。对于投资者来说,这是一个重要时刻,因为他们可以在报告中追踪公司的业绩,看看专家对明年的预测,看看对该业务的预期是否有任何变化。我们认为,读者会发现分析师对明年最新(法定)财报后的预测很有趣。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Autobio Diagnostics' nine analysts is for revenues of CN¥5.13b in 2024. This would reflect a decent 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 14% to CN¥2.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥5.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.67 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
考虑到最新业绩,Autobio Diagnostics的九位分析师目前的共识是,2024年的收入为51.3亿元人民币。这将反映其收入在过去12个月中大幅增长了14%。预计每股法定收益将增长14%,至2.54元人民币。然而,在最新财报公布之前,分析师曾预计2024年的收入为56.3亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为2.67元人民币。鉴于收入预期下降以及每股收益预期略有下调,分析师不如公布业绩之前那么乐观。
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥62.84 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Autobio Diagnostics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥66.41 and the most bearish at CN¥56.85 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Autobio Diagnostics is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
尽管下调了预期收益,但62.84元人民币的目标股价没有实际变化,这表明分析师认为这些变化不会对其内在价值产生有意义的影响。研究分析师的估计范围,评估异常值与平均值的差异程度也可能很有启发性。对Autobio Diagnostics的看法有所不同,最看涨的分析师将其估值为66.41元人民币,最看跌的为每股56.85元人民币。即便如此,由于估计分组相对接近,分析师似乎对自己的估值非常有信心,这表明Autobio Diagnostics是一项易于预测的业务,或者分析师都使用了类似的假设。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Autobio Diagnostics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 15% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 19% annually. Autobio Diagnostics is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
我们可以从大局的角度看待这些估计值的另一种方式,例如预测如何与过去的表现相提并论,以及预测相对于业内其他公司是否或多或少看涨。分析师们肯定预计,Autobio Diagnostics的增长将加速,预计到2024年底的年化增长率为19%,与过去五年中每年15%的历史增长率相比处于有利地位。相比之下,同行业的其他公司预计收入每年将增长19%。预计Autobio Diagnostics的增长速度将与其行业大致相同,因此目前尚不清楚我们能否从其相对于竞争对手的增长中得出任何结论。
The Bottom Line
底线
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥62.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
要了解的最重要的一点是,分析师下调了每股收益的预期,这表明公布这些业绩后,市场情绪明显下降。遗憾的是,他们还下调了收入预期,但预计该业务的增长速度仍将与该行业本身大致相同。共识目标股价稳定在62.84元人民币,最新估计不足以对其目标股价产生影响。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Autobio Diagnostics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为该业务的长期发展轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。根据多位Autobio Diagnostics分析师的估计,到2026年,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
Even so, be aware that Autobio Diagnostics is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
即便如此,请注意,Autobio Diagnostics在我们的投资分析中显示了1个警告信号,您应该知道...
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。