It's been a pretty great week for Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited (SZSE:002311) shareholders, with its shares surging 10% to CN¥49.23 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥23b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥1.66 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Guangdong Haid Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥127.3b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 24% to CN¥2.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥130.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.42 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
The average price target was steady at CN¥58.95even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Guangdong Haid Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥64.00 and the most bearish at CN¥51.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Guangdong Haid Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Guangdong Haid Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Guangdong Haid Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥58.95, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Guangdong Haid Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Guangdong Haid Group .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.