Does Shanxi Blue Flame Holding (SZSE:000968) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does Shanxi Blue Flame Holding (SZSE:000968) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited (SZSE:000968) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
大卫·伊本说得好,他说:“波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,看来聪明的货币知道债务(通常涉及破产)是一个非常重要的因素。与许多其他公司一样,山西蓝焰控股有限公司(深圳证券交易所代码:000968)也使用债务。但更重要的问题是:债务创造了多大的风险?
When Is Debt A Problem?
债务何时会成为问题?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务可以帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东们可能会一无所获。但是,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股本,从而永久稀释股东。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,而不会产生任何负面影响。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是同时考虑其现金和债务。
How Much Debt Does Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Carry?
山西蓝焰控股有多少债务?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Shanxi Blue Flame Holding had debt of CN¥3.65b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥4.36b over a year. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.56b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥2.10b.
您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图片显示,截至2024年3月底,山西蓝焰控股的债务为36.5亿元人民币,较一年内的43.6亿元人民币有所减少。另一方面,它拥有15.6亿元的现金,净负债约为21.0亿元人民币。
How Healthy Is Shanxi Blue Flame Holding's Balance Sheet?
山西蓝焰控股的资产负债表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shanxi Blue Flame Holding had liabilities of CN¥2.35b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥3.09b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.56b and CN¥1.58b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥2.30b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,山西蓝焰控股在12个月内到期的负债为23.5亿元人民币,之后到期的负债为30.9亿元人民币。另一方面,它有一年内到期的现金为15.6亿元人民币,还有价值15.8亿元人民币的应收账款。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出23.0亿元人民币。
Shanxi Blue Flame Holding has a market capitalization of CN¥6.41b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
山西蓝焰控股的市值为641亿元人民币,因此,如果需要,它很可能会筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。但很明显,我们一定要仔细研究它能否在不稀释的情况下管理债务。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。
With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7, Shanxi Blue Flame Holding uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the alluring interest cover (EBIT of 7.3 times interest expense) certainly does not do anything to dispel this impression. Sadly, Shanxi Blue Flame Holding's EBIT actually dropped 3.9% in the last year. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shanxi Blue Flame Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
山西蓝焰控股的债务与息税折旧摊销前利润比率为1.7,巧妙但负责任地使用债务。而且诱人的利息保障(息税前利润是利息支出的7.3倍)确实如此 不 尽一切努力消除这种印象。遗憾的是,去年,山西蓝焰控股的息税前利润实际上下降了3.9%。如果收益继续下降,那么管理这笔债务将像在独轮车上送热汤一样困难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定山西蓝焰控股能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Shanxi Blue Flame Holding reported free cash flow worth 20% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法减少债务。因此,合乎逻辑的步骤是研究息税前利润与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在过去的三年中,山西蓝焰控股公布的自由现金流占其息税前利润的20%,确实很低。这种低迷的现金转换水平削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。
Our View
我们的观点
While Shanxi Blue Flame Holding's EBIT growth rate makes us cautious about it, its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow is no better. At least its interest cover gives us reason to be optimistic. We think that Shanxi Blue Flame Holding's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Shanxi Blue Flame Holding , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
尽管山西蓝焰控股的息税前利润增长率使我们对此持谨慎态度,但其将息税前利润转换为自由现金流的记录也没有好转。至少它的利息保障使我们有理由保持乐观。综合考虑上述数据后,我们认为山西蓝焰控股的债务确实使其有点风险。这不一定是一件坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的事情。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。我们已经向山西蓝焰控股确定了一个警告信号,我们知道它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
毕竟,如果你对一家资产负债表坚如磐石的快速成长型公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金增长股票清单。
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