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Guangdong Shirongzhaoye's (SZSE:002016) Earnings Trajectory Could Turn Positive as the Stock Jumps 15% This Past Week

Guangdong Shirongzhaoye's (SZSE:002016) Earnings Trajectory Could Turn Positive as the Stock Jumps 15% This Past Week

廣東世榮兆業(SZSE:002016)的收益軌跡可能會轉爲正值,因爲該股上週上漲了15%
Simply Wall St ·  04/29 22:52

Guangdong Shirongzhaoye Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002016) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 36%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

廣東世榮兆業股份有限公司(深圳證券交易所:002016)的股東應該很高興看到上週股價上漲了15%。但這並不能改變這樣一個事實,即過去五年的回報並不令人滿意。實際上,股價下跌了36%,遠低於購買指數基金所能獲得的回報。

While the last five years has been tough for Guangdong Shirongzhaoye shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

儘管過去五年對廣東世榮兆業股東來說是艱難的,但過去一週顯示出希望的跡象。因此,讓我們來看看長期基本面,看看它們是否是負回報的驅動力。

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映了投資者的情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的業務表現。評估公司情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。

Looking back five years, both Guangdong Shirongzhaoye's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 25% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 8% compound annual share price fall. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.

回顧五年,廣東世榮兆業的股價和每股收益均有所下降;後者每年下降25%。每股收益的下降比8%的複合年股價下跌還要嚴重。股價反應相對平淡,可能是因爲市場預計業務將好轉。

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下圖描述了 EPS 隨着時間的推移是如何變化的(點擊圖片可以看到確切的值)。

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:002016 Earnings Per Share Growth April 30th 2024
SZSE:002016 每股收益增長 2024 年 4 月 30 日

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

在買入或賣出股票之前,我們始終建議仔細研究歷史增長趨勢,可在此處查閱。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Guangdong Shirongzhaoye, it has a TSR of -28% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮兩者之間的區別 股東總回報 (TSR) 和 股價回報。儘管股價回報率僅反映股價的變化,但股東總回報率包括股息的價值(假設已進行再投資)以及任何折扣融資或分拆的收益。可以公平地說,股東總回報率爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。以廣東世榮兆業爲例,在過去5年的股東回報率爲-28%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While it's certainly disappointing to see that Guangdong Shirongzhaoye shares lost 10% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 13%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Guangdong Shirongzhaoye that you should be aware of before investing here.

儘管廣東世榮兆業股價全年下跌10%確實令人失望,但這還不如13%的市場跌幅那麼糟糕。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示着尚未解決的挑戰,因爲它比過去五年中5%的年化虧損還要糟糕。儘管一些投資者在專門收購陷入困境(但仍被低估)的公司方面表現良好,但不要忘記巴菲特說過 “轉機很少會轉機”。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,我們發現了廣東世榮兆業的兩個警告信號,在這裏投資之前,您應該注意這些信號。

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

如果你想看看另一家公司——一家財務狀況可能優異的公司——那麼千萬不要錯過這份已經證明自己可以增加收益的公司的免費名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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