Investors in UTour Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002707) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at CN¥6.66 following the release of its first-quarter results. UTour Group reported revenues of CN¥1.0b, which blew past expectations. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.029 came in 3.3% short of forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from UTour Group's three analysts is for revenues of CN¥7.49b in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 79% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 14% to CN¥0.085 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥7.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.14 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at CN¥7.73, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic UTour Group analyst has a price target of CN¥9.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥5.80. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that UTour Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 117% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 54% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 16% per year. Not only are UTour Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for UTour Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple UTour Group analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of UTour Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.