Hoe Leong Corporation Ltd. (SGX:H20) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 100% share price jump in the last month. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 33% over that time.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Hoe Leong's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Singapore's Machinery industry is similar at about 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

How Hoe Leong Has Been Performing

For instance, Hoe Leong's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hoe Leong would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.3%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 7.3% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 8.6% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hoe Leong is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Hoe Leong's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We find it unexpected that Hoe Leong trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Hoe Leong.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.