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Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's (SZSE:300553) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential

Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's (SZSE:300553) Profits May Be Overstating Its True Earnings Potential

杭州极智机电(深圳证券交易所代码:300553)的利润可能夸大了其真正的盈利潜力
Simply Wall St ·  05/03 18:11

Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300553) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. Our analysis has found some concerning factors which weaken the profit's foundation.

杭州集智机电有限公司(深交所股票代码:300553)公布了一些不错的收益,但股东们的反应并不强烈。我们的分析发现了一些削弱利润基础的相关因素。

earnings-and-revenue-history
SZSE:300553 Earnings and Revenue History May 3rd 2024
SZSE: 300553 收益和收入历史记录 2024 年 5 月 3 日

Examining Cashflow Against Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's Earnings

根据杭州极智机电的收益研究现金流

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

用于衡量公司将其利润转换为自由现金流(FCF)的情况的一个关键财务比率是应计比率。应计比率从给定时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将结果除以该时间内公司的平均运营资产。这个比率告诉我们,一家公司的利润中有多少没有自由现金流的支持。

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

这意味着负的应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所暗示的要多。尽管应计比率为正并不成问题,表示非现金利润达到一定水平,但高应计比率可以说是一件坏事,因为它表明票面利润与现金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计收入较高的公司将来的利润往往会降低”。

For the year to March 2024, Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic had an accrual ratio of 0.22. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥118m despite its profit of CN¥26.2m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥118m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

在截至2024年3月的一年中,杭州集智机电的应计比率为0.22。因此,我们可以推断出其自由现金流远不足以支付其法定利润。在过去的十二个月里,它实际上有 负面的 自由现金流,尽管利润为2620万元人民币,但流出量仍为1.18亿元人民币,如上所述。在去年自由现金流为负的背景下,我们想象一些股东可能会怀疑其今年1.18亿元人民币的现金消耗是否表明存在高风险。话虽如此,故事还有更多。应计比率至少部分反映了不寻常项目对法定利润的影响。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic.

注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对杭州集智机电的资产负债表分析。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

不寻常物品对利润的影响

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥15m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

考虑到应计比率,在过去十二个月中,价值1500万元人民币的不寻常物品提振了杭州极智机电的利润也就不足为奇了。虽然获得更高的利润总是件好事,但来自不寻常物品的巨额捐款有时会抑制我们的热情。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大不寻常的事项往往不会重演。这正如你所预料的那样,因为这些增强被描述为 “不寻常”。截至2024年3月,杭州极智机电从不寻常的项目中获得了相当大的利润。在其他条件相同的情况下,这可能会使法定利润成为衡量潜在盈利能力的不良指导。

Our Take On Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's Profit Performance

我们对杭州集智机电盈利表现的看法

Summing up, Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Hangzhou Jizhi Mechatronic you should be aware of.

总而言之,杭州极智机电从不寻常的项目中获得了不错的利润提振,但其纸面利润无法与自由现金流相提并论。考虑到所有这些,我们认为杭州极智机电的利润可能给人一种对其可持续盈利水平的过于慷慨的印象。考虑到这一点,除非我们对风险有透彻的了解,否则我们不会考虑投资股票。一个很好的例子:我们已经发现了两个你应该注意的杭州集智机电的警告信号。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

在本文中,我们研究了许多可能削弱利润数字效用的因素,我们对此持谨慎态度。但是,还有很多其他方法可以告知你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是高质量业务的好兆头。尽管可能需要代表你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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