Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. (HKG:2192) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.
A Closer Look At Medlive Technology's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Medlive Technology has an accrual ratio of 0.77 for the year to December 2023. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥69m during the period, falling well short of its reported profit of CN¥242.3m. We should mention, here, that Medlive Technology free cashflow was as flat as a pancake over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Medlive Technology's Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Medlive Technology didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Medlive Technology's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Medlive Technology at this point in time. While conducting our analysis, we found that Medlive Technology has 2 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Medlive Technology's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.