Guangxi LiuYao Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:603368) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 41% in the last quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. After all, the share price is down 10% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Guangxi LiuYao Group actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.2% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
It's strange to see such muted share price performance despite sustained growth. Perhaps a clue lies in other metrics.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 9.5% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Guangxi LiuYao Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Guangxi LiuYao Group will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Guangxi LiuYao Group, it has a TSR of 1.5% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Guangxi LiuYao Group shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 3.5% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 12%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 0.3% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Guangxi LiuYao Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.