The Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders' Meeting, which global investors are concerned about, was held in Omaha, Nebraska. Sina Finance spoke with Oppenheimer Fund Executive Director Orina Chang at the shareholders' meeting.
Orina Chang told Sina Finance: “Buffett's value investment philosophy has had a profound impact on me.” She believes that the most important point of value investing is “If I don't invest properly, what assets in this company can protect me so I don't lose that much money. I walked around again today and saw every company he has invested in. I suddenly discovered that everything he invests in is something he may use in his life and is closely related to his own life. Since then, every company has operated very well, very efficiently, and I have a very deep feeling.”
She believes that when investing as an ordinary investor, you first set the length of time to invest, and then find out what you want to invest in, whether it is a stock or a bond, and whether you can afford a relatively risky investment for a long period of time.
As a non-professional, she thinks it's a bit difficult to select stocks because “after stock selection, you have to keep watching the company to see if it is running in the same direction as it was originally; if not, then you have to sell it quickly, so this is a bit unrealistic.”
She suggests that ordinary investors invest to find a definite general direction, “such as artificial intelligence and new energy, buy a relevant index and just leave it alone; you don't have to worry about which company is not doing a good job.”
Guest quotes:
Buffett's investment philosophy helped me the most is the idea of a margin of safety. When we make a wrong investment decision, can we minimize our losses?
For people like me who invest in technology and growing businesses, they prefer to view R&D as an intangible asset.
The first one is artificial intelligence and machine learning. I think it will bring huge changes to future humans, which we can't imagine. The second one, I think, is green energy. These are the two I would invest in the most.
For an average investor, it's hard to know when a company starts to soar. So I think the best way is to buy a basket of stocks, figure out the direction, set the time, and set the risk. I think this is the best way to invest.
Here is a transcript of the interview with Orina Chang
Sina Finance: Hello Mr. Zhang, thank you very much for being interviewed by Sina Finance. How many times have you attended Buffett's shareholders' meeting?
Orina Chang: My first time here.
Sina Finance: Is this your first time in Omaha?
Orina Chang: Yes, first time here.
Sina Finance: Which of Buffett's investment ideas do you most agree with?
Orina Chang: He's my alumnus, and we both attended Columbia Business School. I think the most important part of his investment philosophy is value investing. The most important point of value investing is if the investment is wrong, what assets in this company can protect me and keep me from losing so much money. This is his most important point. I walked around again today and saw every company he invested in. I suddenly discovered that everything he invested in was something he might use in his life and was closely related to his own life. Since then, every company has operated very well, very efficiently, and I have a very deep feeling.
Sina Finance: As an expert in asset management, you have rich and successful investment experience in private equity, hedge funds, real estate, etc. So do you think Buffett's investment philosophy has had any influence or help for you?
Orina Chang: I think the biggest help is of course a concept called margin of safety. When we make a wrong investment decision, can we minimize our losses? This is one of the most important ideas for me in learning about investing.
Therefore, in the report, we will pay a lot of attention to book value, that is, how many tangible assets a company has, and then deduct all of its liabilities. If the company were to be auctioned today, how much could it still be sold, or if I were to set up an exact same company now, then how much would my replacement cost. I think this is the most basic introductory concept for me.
But I myself am an investor in technology companies. One difference from Buffett is that he never invests in technology. He doesn't invest in technology because the book value of technology companies is very low and very low. It takes all the money for R&D, research, and then hires many researchers, so all technology companies have no book value. Unlike traditional companies, it has a high book value. It has many different things such as plants, equipment, real estate, etc., so in Buffett's view, a technology company is a dangerous investment when it has no book value. If this investment is wrong, you can't sell anything. Once the personnel are dissolved, the company has no assets to recover the costs of the previous wrong investment. But for me, for people who work in technology, R&D is actually an intangible asset. Although it can't be specifically written on your financial reports or on your book slogan, it is indeed an intangible asset. I think in terms of statistics, R&D should not be eliminated as a simple expense. I think this has had a huge impact on me. But if you take a deeper, more in-depth look at all of these financial reports, for people like me who invest in technology and developing companies, I would be more inclined to view R&D as an intangible asset. Although it's not in terms of statistical accounts, it is an intangible asset for me.
Sina Finance: Thank you, Mr. Zhang, for sharing. So what investment topics are you most concerned about when it comes to this year's Buffett shareholders' meeting?
Orina Chang: I want him to talk about how he views AI and the growth of the internet over the past 10 years because I think he has avoided the whole internet problem. As I just mentioned, he has no book value, so he has no way to analyze book value. This is the most important future direction for changing the future state of human life, as well as all industries, all industries, all productivity. I especially hope he can talk about it tomorrow.
Sina Finance: I hope stock god Buffett will talk about some topics in the field of artificial intelligence tomorrow, so we can learn more about his thoughts. As an expert in asset management, can you share with us how you can help your clients minimize risk while maximizing wealth growth by formulating investment strategies? How do you balance risk management with wealth growth?
Orina Chang: I used to do institutional management, but now I do personal management. The difference between organizational management and personal management is when the money managed by the organization will come in and when it will go out. You don't know how much money I might make this year, how much I might spend, and how much money I can leave in the end. This is difficult for you to predict, so in a situation where you can invest this money, the best way to manage risk is to reduce your risk.
But these are two sides of the same coin, and as you reduce your volatility, your rate of return also decreases. This is a very important idea. A lot of people say that I'm not at risk; in fact, I can make a lot of money; in fact, there's no such thing.
However, when it comes to personal finance, its biggest benefit is that you can set how long I can invest this money. I can invest for 1 year, I can invest for 5 years, I can invest for 10 years, and I can set it myself, because it's personal financial management. A point in time is actually one of the best ways to manage risk.
I think there are relatively few people who know this. The longer you take time, the lower your risk will be. Even if you invest in the exact same thing. Assuming to invest in US stocks, I invest for a year. The worst case scenario and the best situation are probably in the range of -40% to 60%. But if I invest for 10 years, if I extend the scope, if I extend the time, the worst case scenario is probably -1%, and the best is probably 15% to 20%. So, when I can keep this money for 10 years, then I put all of it in US stocks, and I'm not afraid I'll lose money.
But if I can only keep it for 1 year, then I'm worried. So I think this is the risk-control method that has the least impact on your return on investment. That is, first determine how long this money can be invested, then when you have drawn up a time point and determined, you can use the range of losses you can personally bear.
Sina Finance: What President Zhang said is very reasonable. This kind of long-term value investment, long-term holding, is also very much in line with Buffett's investment philosophy. But today, when the Federal Reserve has been slow to cut interest rates. In this situation where interest rates are very high, inflation is very high, and economic growth is very weak, what investment opportunities do you think are there? Which industries are you more optimistic about? Where will you invest your money in the future?
Orina Chang: I think the first point depends on the length of time. Assuming we have unlimited time like Buffett, we never need to worry about you taking money away. Under these circumstances, this macro factor isn't particularly important to me, because as long as this company does a good job, no matter what your macro fundamentals are, it can actually bring unlimited benefits. I think if it takes long enough, the first is artificial intelligence and machine learning. I think it will bring great changes to future humans. We can't imaginative. The second one, I think, is green energy. These two are the ones I would invest in the most; in fact, they seem a bit different from Buffett.
Sina Finance: Uh-huh, thank you, Mr. Zhang, for sharing. What you said is very reasonable. Artificial intelligence and new energy are very popular investment topics in recent years. Based on your understanding of the current economic situation and predictions of future economic development trends, what suggestions would you give to investors? Did you just mention that you are more concerned about artificial intelligence and new energy, do you have any other suggestions?
Orina Chang: I think if not as a professional investor, the general public wants to invest, I think the first thing would be to set a time point and then find out what you want to invest in, whether it's a stock or a bond. Can you afford a relatively risky investment for a long period of time. If you can, assuming this is a 10-year investment, then you can use 100% to invest in stocks, no problem.
As a non-professional, I think it's a bit difficult to select stocks, because after you've selected stocks, you still have to keep watching the company to see if it's running in its original direction; if not, then you have to sell it quickly, so I think this is a bit unrealistic.
For the average person, I think you've found a general direction. Artificial intelligence is a general direction. I think this is certain. For example, new energy is a general direction, and everyone can agree on this. That is, within these two ranges, which companies will stand out? Actually, it's hard for us to talk about; I don't really know, so it's best to buy a large market, buy the whole index, and just leave it alone; you don't have to worry about which company isn't doing a good job.
For example, I just watched Nvidia. At that time, it was a very small company, and people who played games really loved to use his chips. He did a really good job, but apart from that small group of people playing games, no one else paid attention to this company at all. Then when I went to talk to others, they said, “Nvidia is really, really doing a great job. No one paid attention to me, but suddenly, starting last year, it skyrocketed.
So I think for an average investor, it's hard for you to know when a company starts to soar. So I think the best way is to buy a basket of stocks, figure out the direction, set the time, and set the risk. I think this is the best way to invest.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang, the company you just mentioned, is in great demand for computing power due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence. A chip manufacturing company like Nvidia has doubled its stock many times over the past year. Do you think Nvidia's stock is suitable for long-term holding?
Orina Chang: I think if we are someone who looks at the company professionally, we will keep watching this company, we will keep reading his financial reports, and we will continue to pay attention to his management to see if they are constantly developing in the right direction.
From my point of view, of course, I think he's a very good company and worth holding, but for a general public, I don't think it's possible for you to listen to his quarterly report every season. Intel, for example, can go from a great company to a completely uncompetitive company like today. Of course, a long period of time has passed in the middle, but if you choose Intel, then you've lost a lot of money, so I think you should try to avoid investing in one company's stock or stock. Unless you're doing it professionally, then all your thoughts are spent on it.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang holds several positions. You work as an adjunct professor at the university, and you also set up a scholarship named after you at Columbia University. It can be seen that investing in education is a very important part of your mind. Stock god Buffett has also been an adjunct professor at the Nebraska Business School for many years. He has proposed that he wants people not to remember him because of his wealth; he wants people to remember him because of his status as a teacher. What are your opinions and feelings about Buffett's views?
Orina Chang: Of course, I can't compare myself to Buffett, and then I can't be as rich as him, so people in the world won't remember me because I have wealth. What I want is to help everyone I can help, so maybe the human community won't remember me, but maybe the people I've helped will leave a good contribution in their lives, which is great for me. I am very happy if the students I teach, or the people receiving my scholarships, or any of these people who get help with my career or the things I do to make their lives better, can remember this.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang is really a very generous and kind person. He must learn from you. You graduated from Columbia University, a prestigious Ivy League school, and are academically outstanding. Then, at work, you now manage a business and are a very successful manager of the business. How do you think you define your life position and value in life?
Orina Chang: First of all, I think school is first. In a person's life, studying should be the easiest and easiest thing to control, because everything he needs to test is in the textbook. If you are willing to spend time and effort, you can learn it well and do it well. School education is one of the best ways to grow society and the economy, so I hope everyone can enrich themselves at school. Other than studying, I think the rest of his life will be difficult to control, because life is full of all kinds of changes. My requirement for myself is that no matter what kind of changes we encounter in our lives, we can resolve them very calmly, and then solve them, so that everyone can benefit. That's probably about it. I think if a person can make everyone around them have a good life, he can get great satisfaction himself.
Sina Finance: Altruistic. I have a very altruistic mentality. What factors in your life do you think contributed to your academic and career achievements?
Orina Chang: I think academic achievements should be very simple; everyone can get them; as long as you work hard, you can get them. As for my career, I think the biggest factor is that I'm not afraid of change. When I think I don't like something, I'm not afraid to change it. Second, if something happens, it's not easy for me to be alarmed, and I don't have any worries or fears; I think I'll just do it and solve it. I think this should be a big factor in achieving success.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang said that the harder you work, the luckier you are, and then don't get carried away; that is, you have to focus on your goals and then bravely accept the challenge.
Orina Chang: Right, then I think that if everyone is motivated, they can do a good job. If you just think about yourself, it might be a bit more difficult. If everyone benefits each other, everyone will work together.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang, if you had the chance to ask Buffett questions tomorrow, what questions would you most like to ask Buffett?
Orina Chang: If I could ask him, I would ask him if I changed the financial report to R&D not an intent, not an expense, but a viable asset, then what would you think about the technology industry, and how would you quantify it specifically in financial reports, so that everyone can just use the concept of value investment, this structure to invest in technology companies.
Sina Finance: Uh-huh, OK, thank you, Mr. Zhang. Thank you again, Mr. Zhang, for being interviewed by Sina Finance. I hope to see you again at tomorrow's shareholders' meeting and the Chinese and American Investors Reception hosted by Sina Finance. Thank you.
(Sina Finance's correspondent in the US, Bai Xue Amanda, Guo Yijie, Monica from Omaha, USA)