Does Wanhua Chemical Group (SHSE:600309) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does Wanhua Chemical Group (SHSE:600309) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600309) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們注意到,萬華化學集團有限公司(SHSE: 600309)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
債務何時會成爲問題?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
當企業無法通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會變得有風險。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是它必須以低價籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理債務,這也是爲了自己的利益。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先將現金和債務水平放在一起考慮。
What Is Wanhua Chemical Group's Debt?
萬華化學集團的債務是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Wanhua Chemical Group had CN¥108.7b in debt in March 2024; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has CN¥33.5b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥75.2b.
您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖表顯示,萬華化學集團在2024年3月有1087億元人民幣的債務;與前一年大致相同。另一方面,它擁有335億元人民幣的現金,淨負債約爲752億加元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240506/0-70ca8789f078031cd02857ccd2b90346-0-6f544083f166d250fa286d2ddf68ea06.png/big)
How Strong Is Wanhua Chemical Group's Balance Sheet?
萬華化學集團的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Wanhua Chemical Group had liabilities of CN¥123.4b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥56.7b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥33.5b as well as receivables valued at CN¥16.7b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥130.0b.
根據上次報告的資產負債表,萬華化學集團的負債爲1234億元人民幣,12個月後到期的負債爲567億元人民幣。除這些債務外,它有335億元人民幣的現金以及價值167億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額130.0億元人民幣。
Wanhua Chemical Group has a very large market capitalization of CN¥279.8b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
萬華化學集團的市值非常大,爲2798億元人民幣,因此,如果需要,它很可能會籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。但是,仍然值得仔細研究其償還債務的能力。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
We'd say that Wanhua Chemical Group's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.4), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 23.5 times, makes us even more comfortable. One way Wanhua Chemical Group could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 12%, as it did over the last year. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Wanhua Chemical Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
我們可以說,萬華化學集團淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率適中(爲2.4),這表明在債務方面謹慎行事。而且其23.5倍的強大利息覆蓋率使我們更加自在。萬華化學集團克服債務的一種方法是停止增加借款,但繼續像去年一樣將息稅前利潤增長至12%左右。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益將決定萬華化學集團未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Wanhua Chemical Group saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要研究息稅前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去的三年中,萬華化學集團的自由現金流總額爲負數。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。
Our View
我們的觀點
Neither Wanhua Chemical Group's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. We think that Wanhua Chemical Group's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Wanhua Chemical Group (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
無論是萬華化學集團將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流的能力,還是其總負債水平,都沒有使我們對萬華化學集團承擔更多債務的能力充滿信心。但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆地用息稅前利潤支付利息支出。綜合考慮上述數據後,我們認爲萬華化學集團的債務確實使其有點風險。這不一定是一件壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的事情。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現了萬華化學集團的3個警告標誌(其中1個不容忽視!)你應該知道。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。
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