A week ago, Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$637m, some 8.5% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.66, 34% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Noble after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Noble from ten analysts is for revenues of US$2.66b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 2.3% to US$3.36. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.44 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$59.91, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Noble at US$67.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$51.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Noble's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Noble's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 86 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Noble is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$59.91, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Noble. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Noble analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Noble .
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