Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Sichuan Em Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601208) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Sichuan Em Technology Carry?
As you can see below, Sichuan Em Technology had CN¥3.56b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.19b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥2.37b.
How Strong Is Sichuan Em Technology's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Sichuan Em Technology had liabilities of CN¥2.84b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.56b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥1.19b in cash and CN¥1.55b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥2.66b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Sichuan Em Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥7.30b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Sichuan Em Technology has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.8 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.5 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even worse, Sichuan Em Technology saw its EBIT tank 31% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sichuan Em Technology's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Sichuan Em Technology saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Sichuan Em Technology's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability to handle its total liabilities isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that Sichuan Em Technology's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Sichuan Em Technology (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.