The analyst might have been a bit too bullish on Getaround, Inc. (NYSE:GETR), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week.      Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of US$17m missing forecasts by 44%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of US$0.32 some 60% below prior forecasts.     Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual.  So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimate to see what could be in store for next year.

NYSE:GETR Earnings and Revenue Growth May 13th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Getaround's sole analyst is for revenues of US$80.0m in 2024. This reflects a modest 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months.      Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 42% to US$0.76.       Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$129.8m and losses of US$0.86 per share in 2024.         We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analyst administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.    

There was a decent 31% increase in the price target to US$3.50, with the analyst clearly signalling that the expected reduction in losses is a positive, despite a weaker revenue outlook.      

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates.     It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Getaround's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 34% over the past year.    Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.8% annually.  So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Getaround.    

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year.        On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry.       Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business.    There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.  

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider.   We have analyst estimates for Getaround going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Getaround (2 are concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.  

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