Despite an already strong run, Nanjing Railway New Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:301016) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 3.3% isn't as attractive.

Following the firm bounce in price, Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 44.8x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 32x and even P/E's lower than 20x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 28% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 68% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 38% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

The large bounce in Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd you should be aware of, and 2 of them don't sit too well with us.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Nanjing Railway New TechnologyLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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