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Futian Holdings Limited (HKG:8196) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 29% Price Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  May 22 19:57

The Futian Holdings Limited (HKG:8196) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 29%. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 83% loss during that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Futian Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Trade Distributors industry is similar at about 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:8196 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 22nd 2024

What Does Futian Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Futian Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Futian Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Futian Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 58%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 41% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it interesting that Futian Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Futian Holdings looks to be in line with the rest of the Trade Distributors industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Futian Holdings' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Futian Holdings (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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