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China CAMC Engineering (SZSE:002051) Stock Falls 5.6% in Past Week as Five-year Earnings and Shareholder Returns Continue Downward Trend

Simply Wall St ·  May 23 20:45

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002051) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 32% over a half decade. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 31%. On top of that, the share price is down 5.6% in the last week.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, China CAMC Engineering moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

We don't think that the 1.6% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. The revenue fall of 0.8% per year for five years is neither good nor terrible. But if the market expected durable top line growth, then that could explain the share price weakness.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002051 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 24th 2024

We know that China CAMC Engineering has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China CAMC Engineering's TSR for the last 5 years was -30%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that China CAMC Engineering shareholders are down 30% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 7.4%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China CAMC Engineering better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with China CAMC Engineering .

We will like China CAMC Engineering better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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