Currently, there are obvious differences in Nengfan production capacity data under different calibers, but the month-on-month increase in the number of Ganglian/Yongyi Nengfan sows has narrowed, and the Ministry of Agriculture is expected to maintain a scale of around 39.9 million heads. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the trend of industry capacity reduction is still being maintained.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to a research report released by Western Securities, as of the end of March 2024, the current number of pigs kept is equivalent to 102.4% of normal holdings, and the supply of production capacity is at the upper end of a reasonable range and in a green area. It is recommended to seize opportunities in the layout of the pig breeding sector and focus on listed pig companies with strong certainty in listing growth and steady management.
The number of listed pig companies listed in April '24 was 12.319,300 heads, -1.55% year-on-year and -2.91% month-on-month. Among the leading companies, Muyuan Co., Ltd., Wen's Co., Ltd. and New Hope listed 545.00/248.29/1.4762 million heads respectively, +2.02%/+17.88%/-6.21% year-on-year, and -0.38%/-5.25%/-3.23% month-on-month respectively. April is a low season for traditional consumption. Pig prices are still relatively low, and senior pig companies are conservative in their plans to go out. The total number of listed pig companies listed in January-April '24 was 49.6423 million heads, +4.14% over the same period last year. There was a slight year-on-year increase in the number of listed pig companies from January to April, mainly due to the high increase in listing volume of leading pig companies.
Listed pig companies' revenue in April was 20.065 billion yuan, +5.78% year over year and +0.79% month over month. Among the leading companies, Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wen's Shares/New Hope achieved revenue of 91.53/46.75/23.37 billion yuan, +0.52%/+25.57%/-1.06% year-on-year respectively, and +0.86%/-1.10%/+1.43% month-on-month respectively. The price of pigs rose slightly in April compared to the same period last month, leading to a high income growth rate. The cumulative revenue of listed pig companies in January-April was 75.083 billion yuan, +5.99% year-on-year. Although pig prices were still in the bottom range from January to April '24, the overall performance was better than the same period in '23, so the revenue growth rate of listed pig companies from January to April was slightly higher than the listing growth rate.
The average sales price of pigs sold by listed pig companies in April was +4.33% month-on-month and +6.01% year-on-year. The average listing price of pig companies listed in April was still at a low level of 15 yuan/kg, but there was a slight increase over the same period, and pig prices picked up during the off-season. The average weight of listed pig companies in April was 109.63 kg, +2.79% month-on-month and +3.76% year-on-year. The leading pig companies were generally stable in weight. Currently, pig prices are low, and listed pig companies have no obvious tendency to push the list.
As of the end of March 2024, the number of sows kept was 39.92 million, down 9.07% from the December 2022 high (43.9 million heads). Currently, the storage volume is equivalent to 102.4% of normal holdings. The supply of production capacity is at the upper end of a reasonable range, and it is in a green area. As of the end of April '24, the number of active sows kept according to Steel Union/Yongyi statistics was +0.94%/+0.45% month-on-month, respectively. We expect that the Ministry of Agriculture will not change much from month to month in the number of sows that can breed in caliber. Currently, there are obvious differences in Nengfan production capacity data under different calibers, but the month-on-month increase in the number of Ganglian/Yongyi Nengfan sows has narrowed, and the Ministry of Agriculture's caliber is still expected to maintain a scale of around 39.9 million heads. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the trend of industry capacity reduction is still being maintained.
As of March 2024, domestic designated pig slaughter enterprises slaughtered 254.55 million heads in a single month, +20.96% month-on-month and -4.65% year-on-year. According to Yongyi data, as of May 9, 2024, the price difference between 175 kg pigs and standard pigs was +0.11 yuan/kg. Currently, the price difference between standard fertilizer is relatively stable.
Investment suggestions: It is recommended to seize opportunities in the pig breeding sector and focus on listed pig companies with strong certainty in listing growth and steady management: recommend Wen's shares, superstar agriculture and animal husbandry, Tang Renshen, and Huatong shares.
Risk warning: Degradation of pig production capacity falls short of expectations, increase in feed prices exceeds expectations, risk of epidemic diseases, etc.