The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shanxi Securities released a research report saying that the growth rate of coal imports declined year on year in April '24, with thermal coal and coking coal increasing year on year. Judging from import prices, lignite only increased slightly month-on-month. According to data disaggregation, although the import prices of most types of coal showed a downward trend in April, the price of imported full-caliber coal increased month-on-month due to changes in the import structure. That is, the increase in imports of coking coal and thermal coal, which are relatively expensive, led to a month-on-month increase in the average import price. Domestic coal prices rebounded steadily in April. At the same time, domestic supply increased negatively year-on-year due to the impact of the Shanxi Chasanchao on production. The price recovery was more due to demand-side improvements. Considering that imported coal is actually becoming more expensive, it is judged that the increase in imported coal is mainly due to bridging the gap between domestic supply and demand.

Data disassembly

In terms of volume and price, imported coal reached 161 million tons from January to April 2024, an increase of 13% over the previous year; in April, imports reached 45.25 million tons in a single month, an increase of 11.23% year-on-year, and 9.35% month-on-month. The average price of imported coal in January-April was 103 US dollars/ton, down 7.49% year on year; in April, the price of imported coal was 101 US dollars/ton, down 17.64% year on year, up 2% month on month.

Among them, in terms of thermal coal, imports increased year-on-year in January-April, and import prices fell year-on-year; in terms of coking coal, imports increased year-on-year in January-April, and import prices fell year on year; in January-April, imports fell year on year; in January-April, import volume fell year on year, and import prices fell year on year.

Maintain import contraction expectations

Shanxi Securities said that, on the one hand, China is resuming the import tariff policy, and Russia and Mongolia's share of imported coal is under pressure. On the other hand, the advantage of imported coal has declined. Considering the narrowing of price differences at home and abroad combined with expectations for the resumption of production in Shanxi, imported coal may decline somewhat. By type of coal, it is expected that the future impact on anthracite coal, coking coal, etc. will be even greater due to declining export expectations from Russia and a relatively comprehensive range of coal types; Australian coking coal will still be difficult to export to China in large quantities due to price factors.

It is recommended to focus on the following targets:

The bottom of coking coal was confirmed, and production in the Shanxi region is expected to be released at an accelerated pace. Focus on Lu'an Huanneng (601699.SH), Shanmei International (600546.SH), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), Pingmei Co., Ltd. (601666.SH), Huaibei Mining (), and Hengyuan Coal Power (USD). 600985.SH 600971.SH Summer stock replenishment is expected to support thermal coal prices, focusing on the Shaanxi coal industry (601225.SH), Jingong coal industry (601001.SH), Guanghui Energy (600256.SH), and Xinji Energy (). 601918.SH High dividends focus on China Shenhua (601088.SH).

Risk warning: The interest rate environment has changed drastically, domestic demand has fallen short of expectations, domestic supply has increased significantly, Mongolia's imports have increased dramatically, imported coking coal from Australia has increased dramatically, Russia's eastward transportation bottleneck has been broken, Indonesian coal exports to China have been drastically reduced, and international coal prices have dropped sharply.