On Thursday (May 23), the price of gold hit its lowest level in more than a week, falling for the third consecutive trading day. Spot gold fell 1.8% on the same day, hitting its lowest level since May 13 of 2,336.39 US dollars per ounce. Investors are concerned about the timing of the US interest rate cut and the strong performance of US corporate activity, spurring profit backlash, the pressure on gold to pull back continues to increase, and the price of gold continues to fall rapidly and sharply.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of first-time jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 215,000 in the week ending May 18. There was a similar decline in the previous week, the biggest drop for two consecutive weeks since September last year. The initial value of the US S&P global service industry PMI recorded 54.8 in May, higher than market expectations of 51.3, and the previous value was 51.3; the initial value of the US S&P global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.9 in May, higher than market expectations of 50, and the previous value was 50. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: After two months of slow growth, the recovery of the US economy accelerated again. Preliminary PMI data showed that May saw the fastest expansion in more than two years. These data suggest that the US economy will once again achieve strong GDP growth in the second quarter. Not only did output rise as orders resumed growth, but business confidence also increased. The growth rate of business activity in the US accelerated sharply in May, reaching the fastest level in more than two years, indicating that economic performance improved in the middle of the second quarter. At the same time, both input costs and output prices are rising at a faster rate, and the manufacturing industry has become the main source of price increases in the past two months. According to the analysis, US companies faced rising input prices in May. According to reports, supplier prices for various inputs, including metals, chemicals, plastics, and wood products, as well as energy and labor costs, have risen, and manufacturing input price indicators have jumped to their highest level in a year and a half. This may suggest that the trend of slowing commodity inflation is coming to an end. In view of America's latest economic development, Federal Reserve Bostic said that the Federal Reserve will not consider the political calendar to determine the timing of policy decisions. I wouldn't be surprised if the US could take longer than other countries to reach 2% inflation. We are not going to fall into a more austerity environment. We may need to be more patient and determine the path for inflation to 2% before adjusting policy interest rates. Strong employment growth gave me peace of mind about maintaining more tight interest rates. According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 99.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.9%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until August is 88.9%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.8%. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the summer or even during the year may be dashed, leading to increasing pressure on gold to pull back. If gold wants to gain strength, I'm afraid it will still have to wait for more weak data from the US.

Source: Yi Huitong

On a technical level, international gold closed down sharply again on Thursday. The gold price dropped to a low of 2,327 US dollars in the early hours of Friday morning. The daily market recorded a strong bald, barefoot line for the second consecutive trading day. Currently, the price of gold can't help but fall through the middle Bollinger band and break downward against the 40-day EMA, further exacerbating the downward cross-arrangement of short-term indicators of the daily moving average. A double top pattern has temporarily appeared on the graph. If the lower $2,330 support falls, it will test the starting position of the rally at $2,284 in early May. Once this position also falls, we should be wary of gold turning deeper into a deeper decline.

Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang

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