Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the Zhejiang Shengyang Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603703) share price is up 24% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 11% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 0.7%.
In light of the stock dropping 8.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
We don't think that Zhejiang Shengyang Science and TechnologyLtd's modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.
Over the last half decade Zhejiang Shengyang Science and TechnologyLtd's revenue has actually been trending down at about 0.05% per year. Even though revenue hasn't increased, the stock actually gained 4%, per year, during the same period. To us that suggests that there probably isn't a lot of correlation between the past revenue performance and the share price, but a closer look at analyst forecasts and the bottom line may well explain a lot.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Zhejiang Shengyang Science and TechnologyLtd shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 0.7% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 4% per year, is even more impressive. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Zhejiang Shengyang Science and TechnologyLtd (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
We will like Zhejiang Shengyang Science and TechnologyLtd better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.