Despite an already strong run, Kingboard Holdings Limited (HKG:148) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 7.4% over the last year.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Kingboard Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.8x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 10x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
For example, consider that Kingboard Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
Kingboard Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 44%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 56% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 20% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Kingboard Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Kingboard Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Kingboard Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Kingboard Holdings you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Kingboard Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.