On May 29, the satellite navigation sector showed active performance. Shaanxi Huada rose more than 13%, Aerospace Morning Light rose and stopped, Northern Changlong rose more than 8%, Tianjian Technology rose more than 6%, and Aerospace Huanyu, Shanghai Industrial, and Zhimingda rose collectively.

According to the news, according to a report by the US Space News Network on May 27, Shanghai Lanjian Hongqing Technology Co., Ltd. submitted advance information (API) to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) on May 24. The document outlines plans for a constellation called Honghu-3 (Honghu-3), which will launch a total of 10,000 satellites in 160 orbital planes.

A person familiar with the matter later revealed that the news is true. Currently, the document is publicly available on the ITU's official website; the specific launch plan for Hongqing Technology's 10,000 satellites is unknown, and the industry's current practice is to launch them in batches on an annual basis. Other industry insiders said that the actual number of launches in the end may not necessarily be the same as the number of applications.

Open Source Securities also pointed out in a recently released research report that the “Honghu-3” constellation is the third giant constellation with more than 10,000 satellites in China after the GW plan and the G60 constellation. Unlike the latter two plans, Hongqing Technology, which is behind the “Honghu-3” constellation, is a startup founded in 2017.

In 2023, the output value of China's satellite navigation and location services will exceed 530 billion yuan

On May 18, the China Satellite Navigation and Positioning Association released the “2024 White Paper on the Development of China's Satellite Navigation and Location Service Industry” in Beijing.

According to the white paper, the overall output value of China's satellite navigation and location service industry reached 536.2 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 7.09% over 2022.

Total output value of China's satellite navigation and location service industry from 2006 to 2023 Source: China Satellite Navigation and Positioning Association

Among them, the core output value of industries including chips, devices, algorithms, software, navigation data, terminal equipment, and infrastructure directly related to the development and application of satellite navigation technology reached RMB 161.1 billion, accounting for 30.04% of the total output value. The output value derived from satellite navigation applications and services reached 375.1 billion yuan, accounting for 69.96% of the total output value.

With the continuous development of “Beidou+” and “+ Beidou”, the industrial ecosystem continues to expand. By the end of 2023, the total number of enterprises and institutions related to the field of satellite navigation and location services in China was close to 20,000, and the total number of employees was close to 1 million; the total number of industry-related enterprises (including the new three boards) listed domestically was 90, and the related output value of listed companies involving satellite navigation and location services accounted for about 8.93% of the country's total output value.

In terms of intellectual property, by the end of 2023, the total number of satellite navigation patent applications in China (including invention patents and utility model patents) had exceeded 119,000, an increase of 4.84% over the previous year, and continued to lead the world.

Looking at the present, the domestic Beidou application market is continuously expanding, and the application scenarios of “Beidou +” and “+ Beidou” are further deepening, application scenarios are further expanded, and application scale and quality are further improved. At the same time, the continued increase in Beidou's international influence will also drive the development of overseas applications. Currently, many domestic enterprises are vigorously expanding overseas markets, and related revenue has grown significantly, reaching 15% year-on-year growth. It is expected that in the next few years, China's satellite navigation and location service industry will once again enter the fast track of development.

Paving the way for global development

Overseas, Musk is actively working on satellites.

According to the data, in 2023, the world launched a total of 223 launch vehicles, of which 98 were launched by SpaceX, accounting for 45% of the global total, which is slightly less than the total number of other companies; 2,945 satellites were launched globally, of which 2,514 satellites were launched, accounting for 87% of the global total, 6.7 times that of the rest of the world combined.

In 2023, the US launched a total of 116 rockets, of which SpaceX accounted for 98. The former quasi-national team — ULA (United Launch Alliance, co-founded by Boeing and Lockheed Martin) only launched three times.

It is worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), also announced on Monday that it has founded a new satellite and space company Neo Space Group (NSG). This strategic move marks Saudi Arabia's major layout in commercial space business. It aims to promote the rapid development of the space industry and provide advanced satellite and space solutions to the world.

Looking back at our country, like the low-altitude economy, commercial space was also included in the government work report this year. It is one of the representatives of the “new growth engine” mentioned in the report.

According to the “Blue Book on China's Aerospace Science and Technology Activities (2023)”, China carried out a total of 67 space launches in 2023, of which 26 were commercial launches, with a launch success rate of 96%; 120 commercial satellites were developed and launched, accounting for 54% of the number of satellites developed and launched throughout the year.

On the local government side, in November 2023, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government officially issued the “Shanghai Action Plan to Promote Commercial Aerospace Development and Build a Highland for the Spatial Information Industry (2023-2025)”. On May 8, 2024, the official website of the People's Government of Haidian District of Beijing issued a notice on the issuance of the “Haidian District Action Plan to Build a Highland of Commercial Aerospace Innovation (2024-2028)”. On May 9, Hubei Province launched the “Hubei Province's Action Plan for Breakthrough Development of Commercial Space (2024-2028)”.

Meanwhile, in 2023, China's total number of orbital space launches reached 67, setting a new record, accounting for 30% of the total number of global launches, ranking second in the world. A total of 13 private rockets have been launched, accounting for only about 20% of China's total launch missions. Although there is still a gap with SpaceX, under a complete industrial system, China's power “took advantage of the momentum”, and commercial rocket launches in the private sector have already entered the G2 era.

Looking forward to the future, Minsheng Securities pointed out that the progress of the satellite Internet industry side in 2024 is very definite, and the current position layout opportunities for the sector after undergoing deep adjustments are clear. In terms of domestic progress, it is recommended to focus on application interpretation of terminal satellite functions, satellite tendering, networked star launches, and commercial rocket upgrades; in terms of overseas progress, it is recommended to focus on subsequent SpaceX starship test flights, the direct mobile phone launch process, and the progress of manufacturers other than SpaceX. At the same time, it is recommended to focus on progress related to central and local policy catalysis, industry standard agreement formulation, commercial rocket iteration, and expansion and application of launch sites.