2024年3月江苏滞缓因素进入最后解决阶段，2.65GW项目有望于6月陆续开工，年内部分并网确定性增强。广东阳江青洲2GW项目进展更新，帆石2GW开启招标，有望于年底开工。广东和江苏的项目推进不仅增强了市场对2024、2025年的海风装机信心，并为后续海风项目做出示范解决方案，市场关注重心将从短期业绩兑现度转化为海风行业未来装机想象空间。According to the current construction situation, it is estimated that the installed capacity of Sea Wind will be more than 10 GW in 2024, 6.8 GW will be added to the grid in 2023, and the year-on-year increase of at least 47% in 2024. To achieve the goals of the “14th Five-Year Plan” plan, there is still a lot of potential for installing Sea Wind in 2025.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the current construction commencement, according to the current construction situation, it is expected that the installed capacity of Sea Wind will be more than 10 GW in 2024, 6.8 GW will be connected to the grid in 2023, and an increase of at least 47% year-on-year in 2024. In order to achieve the “14th Five-Year Plan” plan, there is still a lot of potential for installing Sea Wind in 2025. In the long run, the deep-sea wind resources are better and the space is wider, and the deep-sea wind potential will be gradually verified during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. Currently, overseas Seabreeze projects are being developed slowly due to high interest rates. Some high-quality companies are planning to go overseas with higher cost performance and more stable delivery times. As the subsequent interest rate cut cycle stimulates the development momentum of overseas owners, it is expected to usher in opportunities for quantitative profits to rise sharply.
Since domestic offshore wind power involves multiple approvals, 2023H1 is affected by multiple restrictive factors such as waterways, and construction progress falls short of expectations. The 2023Q4 Jiangsu 2.65GW project has been approved one after another, and the 4GW project in Yangjiang, Guangdong has been updated and progressed one after another. Project benefits are frequent, and the sea breeze sector has bottomed out. The unsuitable start of construction from January to February 2024 due to the weather is a low season for the industry. Combined with a vacuum of news, construction expectations continued to be delayed, and sector sentiment turned cold again.
In March 2024, the stagnation factor in Jiangsu entered the final stage of resolution. The 2.65GW project is expected to start construction one after another in June, and the certainty of partial grid connection will increase during the year. The progress of the Qingzhou 2GW project in Yangjiang, Guangdong has been updated, and the 2GW in Fanshi has started bidding, and construction is expected to begin by the end of the year. The promotion of projects in Guangdong and Jiangsu not only strengthened the market's confidence in 2024 and 2025, but also made demonstration solutions for subsequent Haifeng projects. The focus of the market will shift from short-term performance delivery to room for imagination of future installations in the Seabreeze industry.
Open Source Securities said that pessimism and sluggish shipments in the first quarter are fully reflected in stock prices. Starting in the second quarter, there will be a window for offshore wind power construction. With the launch of projects in many places and the commencement and implementation of projects in Jiangsu, market confidence will resonate with upstream shipments. The sector is still in a historical position, and the distribution of upstream high-quality components is cost-effective.
On the target side, as the weather warms up and restrictions are lifted, offshore wind power will usher in an intensive construction period. Downstream installed capacity will directly drive an increase in delivery volume in various sectors. At the same time, the tight supply and demand of overseas sea breezes has also given high-quality domestic companies an opportunity to go overseas. It is recommended to focus on the following aspects:
(1) Marine cables that have benefited from deep-sea development and increased value are benefiting targets: Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), Qifan Cable (605222.SH), Hengtong Optoelectronics (), Baosheng Co., Ltd. (DAB), Yaxing Anchor Chain (Sichuan), and Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276.SZ). 600487.SH 600973.SH 601890.SH
(2) For wind power infrastructure with anti-deflation properties, Daikin Heavy Industries is recommended. Benefiting targets: Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ), Taisheng Wind Energy (300129.SZ), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ), and Tianneng Heavy Industries (300569.SZ).
(3) Downstream delivery volume, tight parts delivery process, benefiting targets: Jinlei Co., Ltd. (300443.SZ), Sun Moon Co., Ltd. (603218.SH), and Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. (603507.SH).
(4) Domestic replacement, increased market share, recommended Pangu Intelligence (301456.SZ), benefiting targets: Mingyang Electric (301291.SZ) and Xinqianglian (300850.SZ).
Risk warning: risk of policy changes; offshore wind power installations falling short of expectations; risk of rising bulk raw materials; increased competition in the industrial chain.