These 4 Measures Indicate That Shanghai Moons' Electric (SHSE:603728) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Shanghai Moons' Electric (SHSE:603728) Is Using Debt Extensively
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Shanghai Moons' Electric Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603728) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過:“波動性與風險遠非同義詞。”當我們評估一家公司的風險時,我們總是會關注其債務使用情況,因爲債務超載可能會導致破產。我們注意到上海月牙電機股份有限公司(SHSE:603728)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但股東們應該擔心它的債務使用情況嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
當企業無法通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資本來輕鬆履行其債務時,債務和其他負債對企業會構成風險。如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所獲。然而,更頻繁的情況是公司必須以折價的價格發行股票,以永久性地稀釋股東,以便支持其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表着便宜的資本,特別是在它用具有高回報率的能力替代稀釋的公司時。考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是同時看其現金和債務。
What Is Shanghai Moons' Electric's Net Debt?
上海月牙電機的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Shanghai Moons' Electric had debt of CN¥262.7m at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥328.9m over a year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥569.5m in cash, leading to a CN¥306.8m net cash position.
下面的圖像(點擊可放大)顯示,上海月牙電機於2024年3月底的債務爲2.627億元人民幣,較一年前的3.289億元人民幣減少。但另一方面,它也持有5.695億元人民幣的現金,使其淨現金頭寸爲3.068億元人民幣。
A Look At Shanghai Moons' Electric's Liabilities
我們可以從最近的資產負債表中看到,上海月牙電機有890.2億元人民幣的短期到期負債,以及9340萬元人民幣的長期到期負債。它持有56.95億元人民幣的現金和86.07億元人民幣的應收賬款,這些賬款在12個月內到期。所以它實際上擁有44.66億元人民幣的淨現金頭寸。
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shanghai Moons' Electric had liabilities of CN¥890.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥93.4m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥569.5m in cash and CN¥860.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥446.6m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
這種短期流動性表明上海月牙電機可能能夠輕鬆償還其債務,因爲其資產負債表遠未過度吃緊。簡單來說,上海月牙電機擁有更多的現金而不是債務的事實,可以認爲是能夠安全管理其債務的好跡象。比總負債還多出了更多的流動資產。
This short term liquidity is a sign that Shanghai Moons' Electric could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Simply put, the fact that Shanghai Moons' Electric has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
如果管理層無法阻止上一年EBIt下降50%的情況重演,其負債負擔的適度性可能變得至關重要。萎縮的盈利(如果趨勢持續下去)甚至可能使相當適度的債務變得非常危險。分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但最終決定上海月牙電機能否保持健康的資產負債表的是未來的盈利,而不是其他什麼。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現對分析師盈利預測的這份免費報告很有趣。
The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Shanghai Moons' Electric if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 50% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shanghai Moons' Electric's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金而不是會計利潤來償還債務。儘管上海月牙電機在其資產負債表上擁有淨現金,但它的將利息、稅、折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力值得關注,以幫助我們了解它建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。最近三年,上海月牙電機的自由現金流總體上呈現出明顯的負增長。雖然這可能是爲了增長支出,但這使得債務的風險要高得多。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While Shanghai Moons' Electric has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Shanghai Moons' Electric saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
雖然調查一家公司的債務狀況總是明智的,但在本案中,上海月牙電機擁有3.068億元人民幣的淨現金和一份看起來不錯的資產負債表。因此,雖然我們看到了一些改進的空間,但我們對上海月牙電機的資產負債表並不太擔心。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上可以了解到大部分關於債務的信息。但並非所有的投資風險都來源於資產負債表。這些風險很難被發現。每家公司都有這些風險,我們已經發現上海月牙電機存在兩個需要注意的警示信號。
Summing Up
總之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Shanghai Moons' Electric has CN¥306.8m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So although we see some areas for improvement, we're not too worried about Shanghai Moons' Electric's balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Shanghai Moons' Electric you should know about.
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If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果您在所有這些工作之後,更感興趣於擁有堅實資產負債表的快速發展公司,請立即查看我們的淨現金成長股列表。
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