德银略微调整了对新付费客户的假设，但盈利预测基本保持不变，因为德银对24财年全年的预测更为乐观，比一致高出13%。德银维持94.40美元的目标价和买入评级。
On May 29, Deutsche Bank released a research report, maintaining a "Buy" rating and $94.4 price target on Futu Holdings. Deutsche Bank pointed out the following highlights:
Futu's 1Q24 earnings were 4%/12% behind the Street's and Deutsche Bank's estimates, respectively, while the top line beat the Street by 1% and was in line with Deutsche Bank's estimate. In 1Q24, Futu's brokerage income increased by 20% QoQ, supported by a 36% QoQ rebound in total trading volume, with US trading increasing by 42% (vs market: 18% QoQ) and HK trading increasing 18% QoQ (in line with market). Interest income expanded 2% QoQ with the MFSL balance increasing by 14% QoQ and leverage trading demand increasing since March.
The big surprise was in the addition of 177k new paying clients in the quarter (6% higher than Deutsche Bank's estimate), surpassing half of its full-year target of 350k. Paying clients from HK and Singapore maintained double-digit growth QoQ from a high client base, although the contribution to overall growth dipped to one-third as other markets saw triple-digit growth in the quarter. Futu copied its success from Singapore to Malaysia, which accounted for another one-third of new paying clients and at a faster-than-expected run rate.
Deutsche Bank slightly finetunes their assumption for new paying clients but keeps the earnings model mostly unchanged, as they were more optimistic about full-year FY24 and their forecast was 13% higher than consensus. Deutsche Bank maintains its target price of US$94.40 and Buy rating.
Downside risks include:
(1) increasing volatility in capital markets
(2) stricter-than-expected regulations
