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Kiddieland International Limited's (HKG:3830) 32% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Simply Wall St ·  May 30 18:37

Kiddieland International Limited (HKG:3830) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 32% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 37%.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Kiddieland International's P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Leisure industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:3830 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 30th 2024

What Does Kiddieland International's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Kiddieland International's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as revenue growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Kiddieland International will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kiddieland International, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Kiddieland International's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 29% decline in revenue over the last three years in total. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 8.5% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Kiddieland International's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Kiddieland International's P/S Mean For Investors?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Kiddieland International's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Kiddieland International currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Kiddieland International has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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